As the West finds common cause, China prepares for the worst

Wenran Jiang, the founding director of the China-institute" class="entity-link entity-organization" data-entity-id="122821" data-entity-type="organization">China Institute and Mactaggart Research Chair Emeritus at the University of Alberta, is an adviser at the Institute for Peace and Diplomacy.Mid-July should have been a moment of quiet satisfaction in Beijing. Fresh data showed China’s favourability surpassing that of the United States in 25 of 37 nations surveyed by Pew Research Centre, including key European countries. Domestically, the second-quarter gross domestic product growth of 4.3 per cent, while softer than the first financial quarter, kept the annual target within reach.The logic was simple: with the US distracted by Donald Trump’s erratic trade wars and isolationist rhetoric, Beijing could court a more autonomous European Union, stabilise its two largest export markets and project an image of reliable global leadership.Instead, events this month delivered a stark reminder that the West’s fractures are less deep than Beijing hoped. On July 13, the European Union’s 27 foreign ministers quietly adopted a strategy paper marking a qualitative shift in Brussels’ posture. Drafted by the EU’s External Action Service, the document casts China and Russia as the two principal revisionist powers seeking to “reshape the global order”. The label moves Beijing out of the “partner-competitor-rival” triad and into a category Brussels once essentially reserved for Moscow.