Why PLA fighter jet sorties near Taiwan dropped to a 3-year low in the first half of 2026

There is a change in the skies and waters around Taiwan.In the first half of this year, the number of People’s Liberation Army (PLA) fighter jets detected near the island more than halved year on year to 1,334.It was a three-year low and marked the lowest operational tempo since 2023, according to a tally by the China-morning-post" class="entity-link entity-organization" data-entity-id="12558" data-entity-type="organization">South China Morning Post based on data from Taiwan’s defence ministry.At the same time, the number of days no PLA jets were detected by Taiwan hit a new high, and the PLA did not stage any large-scale drills around the island – a first since 2022.It is a long way from August 2022, when then US House speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taipei and Beijing responded with live-fire drills around Taiwan.Those drills set new norms, with mainland China sending fighter jets and later, vessels, near the island on an almost daily basis.The number of air sorties rose to more than 5,400 in 2025, increasing pressure on the island and prompting some strategists to argue that the PLA would take over Taiwan in 2027, the deadline for the mainland military’s “centennial goals”.