India is losing its regional primacy as Beijing and Washington move in

Professor Syed Munir Khasru is chairman of the international think tank IPAG Asia-Pacific, Australia, with a presence also in Dhaka, Delhi, Dubai, and Vienna.South Asia is undergoing a gradual but important shift. Smaller states now command a widening array of options, and India’s primacy is quietly giving way. The lesson is clear. Regional leadership can no longer rest on geography and must be sustained through credible and mutually beneficial engagements that compare favourably with the alternatives.China’s challenge begins at India’s border. Both countries fought in 1962, continue to dispute a frontier of roughly 3,500km and had their deadliest confrontation in decades in the Galwan Valley in 2020. Relations have cautiously normalised but the underlying strategic rivalry remains unresolved.economic dependence complicates the rivalry. India imported nearly US$132 billion of Chinese goods in the year ended March, more than from any other country. A government analysis has since reportedly identified about US$51 billion in critical imports that could be replaced by pushing domestic production, partly to reduce reliance on China. Thus, China competes strategically with India while retaining considerable influence over its industrial supply chains.