Human-caused climate change made Spanish, French fires much more likely, scientists calculate

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Play/PauseSPACE Increase Volume↑ Decrease Volume↓ Seek Forward→ Seek Backward← Captions On/Offc Fullscreen/Exit Fullscreenf Mute/Unmutem Decrease Caption Size- Increase Caption Size+ or = Seek %0-9 Next Up EXCLUSIVE VIDEO: Scientists' mission to understand Greenland's melting glaciers 01:38 Subtitle Settings OffEnglish(US)_v Font Color White Font Opacity 100% Font Size 100% Font Family Arial Character Edge None Edge Color Black Background Color Black Background Opacity 50% Window Color Black Window Opacity 0% Reset WhiteBlackRedGreenBlueYellowMagentaCyan 100%75%50%25% 200%175%150%125%100%75%50% ArialCourierGeorgiaImpactLucida ConsoleTahomaTimes New RomanTrebuchet MSVerdana NoneRaisedDepressedUniformDrop Shadow WhiteBlackRedGreenBlueYellowMagentaCyan WhiteBlackRedGreenBlueYellowMagentaCyan 100%75%50%25%0% WhiteBlackRedGreenBlueYellowMagentaCyan 100%75%50%25%0% 00:00 01:50 01:50 More Videos 01:38 EXCLUSIVE VIDEO: Scientists' mission to understand Greenland's melting glaciers 00:30 Crowd breaks through border from Spanish territory of Ceuta from Morocco 01:00 Crowds of migrants swim around border from Morocco into Spanish territory of Ceuta 01:25 The Mediterranean's warming waters are drawing hundreds of invasive species 01:58 Los Angeles hospital transformed into immersive art experience 02:02 Fed leaves interest rate unchanged but with 3 dissents as Warsh praises 'good family fight' 01:52 Americans face biggest food-price spike in decades 00:35 Australian conservationists protest against spread of buffel grass Close Human-caused Climate Change made Spanish fires 20 times more likely, scientists calculate By Seth Borenstein Updated 12:05 AM MESZ, July 31, 2026 Add AP News on Google Add AP News as your preferred source to see more of our stories on Google. Share Share Facebook Copy Link copied Print Email X LinkedIn Bluesky Flipboard Pinterest Reddit Climate Change’s fingerprints are all over the extreme fire weather that sparked this week’s devastating wildfires in Spain and France and has spiked Southern Europe’s burning the past eight years, two new studies conclude. Human-caused Climate Change made the hot and dry conditions responsible for Spain’s record-sized inferno 20 times more likely to happen, and it doubled the chances of extreme fire conditions for the flames in France, scientists at World Weather Attribution calculated in a rapid analysis Thursday, conducted while fires were still burning. Warming in the past 26 years has tripled the odds of the severe fire risk conditions in Spain and increased the chances in France 40%, the same report found. At the same time, researchers published a separate study on Thursday — written and edited long before this week’s fires began — that found the number of days that Southern Europe’s weather reached extreme fire-prone levels has more than doubled compared to decades ago. Both studies examined changes in the weather that creates fire-prone conditions. The measurements factor in air temperature, drought conditions, humidity and wind. “The change in these fire weather conditions in Spain is really extremely strong and is, I think, one of the largest changes that I’ve seen,” said Friederike Otto, an Imperial College of London climate scientist who coordinates World Weather Attribution. Spain is having its hottest summer on record, after an incredibly wet January that allowed plants to grow before a severe drought hit, a combination that increased wildfire fuel, the report said. Wildfire forces Tour de France to ban fans from stage finale as parts of Europe sizzle again 2 MIN READ Hundreds of firefighters battle wildfire in southern Spain that killed at least 12 4 MIN READ Wildfire smoke kills tens of thousands of people a year. Here’s how it attacks the body 4 MIN READ Spain also had the added problem of land abandonment, which left unmanaged plants and trees to dry out, Otto said. France’s Bordeaux region, meanwhile, had thick groves of pines that also burn well when a fire starts, she said. World Weather Attribution — an international collaboration of scientists who examine extreme events to determine Climate Change’s role, if any — did that study so quickly, the report didn’t get peer reviewed, which is the scientific gold standard. But Otto and her colleagues used techniques that are scientifically accepted, and many of their reports are published in peer-reviewed journals later. Warming world means fires ignite ‘more explosively’ A plane releases fire retardant as it flies over a forest near Blagon, during wildfires in southwestern France, July 29, 2026. (AP Photo/Emma Da Silva, File) Otto’s team calculated how much Climate Change — from the burning of coal, oil and gas — increased the chances for fires of this intensity to happen. They did so by comparing fire weather severity levels to past measurements for the region and to what they would be if the world was 2.5 degrees (1.4 degrees Celsius) cooler. That is how much Earth has warmed since pre-industrial times. Thursday’s other study, in the journal Scientific Reports, finds that there were about 10 extreme fire weather days a year in Southern Europe in earlier decades, but it is now up to around 25 a year, said study author Raúl Cordero, a climate scientist at the University of Groningen in the Netherlands. And it is not just more frequent bad fire weather days. Those days are about 50% more intense than they were from 1981 to 2010, his study said. Fires were decreasing until Climate Change overwhelmed gains An area scorched by a wildfire surrounds structures in El Tiemblo, Avila province, Spain, Thursday, July 30, 2026. (AP Photo/Manu Fernandez, File) The number of Southern European fires and amount of land burned had decreased quite a bit from the 1980s to 2018, mostly because of better fire suppression and management techniques, Cordero said. But then things quickly got worse fast because Climate Change overwhelmed that improvement, he said. “It doesn’t matter how many resources or how much money you have, you just cannot stop the propagation of a fire when the weather is so extreme,” Cordero said. “The climate forcing is so extreme nowadays that it’s just amazing.” University of California Merced fire scientist John Abatzaglou, who also wasn’t part of either research, said, “these findings make clear that Climate Change is not just a future problem, it’s already here.” “We need to stop burning fossil fuels,” Otto said. “Because as long as we keep burning fossil fuels, temperatures will increase globally. And that will mean that these fire weather conditions will get worse and worse and worse. And there are hard limits to what we can adapt to.” The Associated Press’ climate and environmental coverage receives financial support from multiple private foundations. AP is solely responsible for all content. Find AP’s standards for working with philanthropies, a list of supporters and funded coverage areas at AP.org. Seth Borenstein Borenstein is an Associated Press science writer, covering Climate Change, disasters, physics and other science topics. He is based in Washington, D.C. twitter mailto