As US and China compete over AI, middle powers can craft a third path

The global AI race is becoming a contest over the international order. In June, the US convened the second summit under the 24-economy Pax Silica around secure supply chains, AI infrastructure and trusted technology partnerships. In July, all 193 UN member states met in Geneva for the inaugural Global Dialogue on AI Governance.Days later, 29 countries signed the agreement establishing the World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization (WAICO) in Shanghai. Together, these developments reveal an emerging structure: American-secured diffusion, Chinese developmental multilateralism and a still-fragmented functional track led by middle powers and international institutions.The American pathway is built around control of the technological frontier. US companies dominate advanced chip design, cloud platforms, proprietary models and much of the software used to train and deploy AI. Washington is organising these assets through Pax Silica, full-stack export packages, public finance, semiconductor partnerships and cybersecurity networks. Access is widened among trusted partners while the most consequential capabilities remain subject to restrictions.