Combined war casualties for Russia and Ukraine could hit 2 million, new report warns

A new report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) projects that combined Russian and Ukrainian war casualties could reach 2 million by spring 2026. The report, released Tuesday, estimates Russian casualties between February 2022 and December 2025 at 1.2 million, including 325,000 deaths, while Ukrainian casualties are estimated between 500,000 and 600,000, including 140,000 deaths. CSIS attributes the higher Russian casualty rate to factors like poor tactics, training, corruption, and a strategy that accepts high losses. The report highlights that Russia's casualties are disproportionately high compared to Ukraine's, with a ratio of roughly 2:1 or 2.5:1, and that Russia is paying a high price for minimal gains.

A study by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) estimates that Russian and Ukrainian military casualties in the ongoing war could reach 2 million by this spring. The report, released recently, estimates approximately 1.2 million Russian casualties, including potentially 325,000 deaths, and close to 600,000 Ukrainian casualties. These figures are based on interviews and data collected from various sources, including Western and Ukrainian officials and independent Russian media. The Kremlin has dismissed the CSIS report as not credible, maintaining that only the defense ministry can release casualty figures. While Russia has focused on recruitment and financial incentives to replenish its forces, Ukraine has faced challenges in mobilization. Despite the high casualties, Russian territorial gains since 2024 have been marginal.