The Tories are still on life support – so why is Badenoch in celebratory mood?

Despite significant losses in recent local, mayoral, and devolved elections, Conservative minister Kemi Badenoch has expressed optimism, framing the results as a sign of the party's resurgence. While the Tories lost around 500 councillors and ceded control of three local authorities to Reform UK, they did regain control of Westminster Council and performed well in other London boroughs. However, the party also suffered defeats in areas like Essex, Newcastle-under-Lyme, and Suffolk, and saw its vote share decline in Wales and Scotland. Conservative strategists are highlighting projections that show an improved vote share compared to the previous year, suggesting a gradual rebuilding process.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is facing calls for his resignation following significant losses for the Labour Party in recent local elections across England and legislative votes in Scotland and Wales. These election results, widely viewed as a referendum on Starmer's leadership, have prompted dozens of lawmakers to demand his ouster. Starmer plans to address the situation in a speech, aiming to outline a new direction for his government, but his position remains precarious. Rivals are reportedly considering their next steps, with one lawmaker threatening to trigger a leadership contest. The Labour Party has struggled with economic growth, public services, and the cost of living, compounded by policy U-turns and a controversial ambassadorial appointment. The recent elections saw Labour lose votes to both the Reform UK and Green parties, indicating a shift in the political landscape.

Labour MP Catherine West has put Prime Minister Keir Starmer "on notice," threatening to trigger a leadership challenge by Monday following significant local election losses for the Labour Party. West stated that if a Cabinet minister does not challenge Starmer by Monday, she will initiate a contest herself, suggesting a reshuffle within the Cabinet as her preferred option. To trigger a leadership contest, West would require the support of 20% of Labour MPs, which amounts to 81 members. She claims approximately 10 MPs are currently backing her effort, with confidence that more will join. The Labour Party experienced substantial losses in recent elections across the UK.

Amidst growing pressure on Keir Starmer's leadership, some Labour MPs are reportedly considering Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham as an alternative. While Starmer faced internal dissent and a dark mood among some colleagues ahead of crucial elections, Burnham, 800 miles away in Madrid, has been actively preparing a leadership bid. His allies suggest a parliamentary return could occur within weeks, with potential by-election seats identified in Greater Manchester and Merseyside. Burnham's proposed platform includes electoral reform, a long-term vision for local services, increased defense spending, and inheritance tax changes to fund social care. A strong candidate is reportedly being lined up to succeed him as Greater Manchester Mayor, potentially paving the way for his return to Westminster.

Local election campaigning is in its final week, with forecaster Robert Hayward predicting significant gains for Reform UK, potentially at the expense of both Labour and Conservative seats. In London, Conservative minister Kemi Badenoch stated her party's commitment to keeping council tax low, differentiating their approach from Reform UK's promises. Badenoch expressed a desire for the Conservatives to win as many seats as possible and regain lost councils, such as Westminster, though she declined to set a specific target. The upcoming elections will determine the political landscape in English local councils.

Despite Keir Starmer's stated determination to lead Labour into the next general election, internal party discussions are reportedly underway regarding an "orderly transition" of leadership. MPs from various factions are exploring mechanisms to trigger a contest, with poor local election results potentially serving as a catalyst for resignations. While Starmer's allies acknowledge a limited timeframe for him to regain party confidence, there is widespread frustration among backbenchers over the lack of a clear successor or direction. Competing claims exist regarding who is driving these discussions, reflecting broader disagreements on timing and strategy within the parliamentary Labour party.