Uranium and control of strait of Hormuz key as talks to end US-Iran war continue

Pakistani mediators are working to broker a permanent ceasefire between the US and Iran, though significant disagreements persist. Key sticking points include future control of the Strait of Hormuz and a US demand for Iran to export its highly enriched uranium stockpile. Iran prioritizes ending hostilities and lifting sanctions, proposing its own authority to manage the Strait of Hormuz, a plan opposed by five Gulf states. Meanwhile, Israel and Iran fear surprise attacks, and the US president maintains military action remains an option. Iran denies media speculation about nuclear issues, stating negotiations focus on ending the war and lifting sanctions.

Iran is reviewing the latest US response to a proposal aimed at ending the ongoing conflict, with diplomacy remaining open according to Tehran. Pakistan's Army Chief is traveling to Iran to facilitate mediation efforts between the two nations. President Pezeshkian stated that diplomatic solutions are still possible, while warning against attempts to force Iran's surrender. Concurrently, Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority has established a "supervision area" in the Strait of Hormuz, requiring vessels to obtain permission for passage. This development coincides with growing international outrage over a video posted by Israel's National Security Minister, appearing to taunt activists from a Gaza-bound aid flotilla. Iran's parliament speaker accused the US of seeking a new war.

Iran has announced an expansion of its claimed military control over the Strait of Hormuz, publishing a map asserting "armed forces oversight" across more than 22,000 sq km of the waterway. This expanded claim extends into the territorial waters of Oman and the UAE. Iran's newly established "Persian Gulf Strait Authority" stated that all transit through the strait requires its coordination and authorization. The UAE has rejected these claims, calling them "fragments of dreams" and asserting its maritime sovereignty. The US and Gulf allies have consistently opposed Iran's attempts to control the strait, with the US advising ships not to comply with Iran's regulations. Iran has not ratified the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, which guarantees safe passage.

The Strait of Hormuz has been closed to naval traffic for eleven weeks following an Iran war, significantly impacting the global economy. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) controls the strait, while a US naval blockade has failed to reopen it. Before the closure, 120-140 ships, including oil tankers carrying 20 million barrels daily, transited the strait. Iran has since established the Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) and is formalizing a mechanism to charge transit fees, reportedly as high as $2 million per ship. Economists suggest that paying Iran for transit may be cheaper than the daily losses incurred by the closure, estimated at $114.8 billion for oil and $7.8 billion for LNG. The disruption has also led to a rising cost of living in several countries.