Atlantic hurricane season forecast to be milder than normal thanks to El Nino

Meteorologists predict a milder Atlantic hurricane season due to a developing El Nino, which is expected to strengthen. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasts a 55% chance of a below-average season, with eight to 14 named storms, three to six hurricanes, and one to three major hurricanes. This outlook is shared by most private and academic forecasters, with some predicting even lower activity. El Nino typically suppresses Atlantic storm formation by creating wind shear that disrupts thunderstorms and pushes dry air into developing storms. While El Nino reduces the number and intensity of weaker storms, stronger hurricanes can persist. Conversely, the central and eastern Pacific are expected to experience a busier season.

Federal government scientists predict a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season for the US in 2026, with eight to 14 named storms. This milder forecast is attributed to a developing El Niño pattern in the Pacific. The season, running from June 1 to November 30, has a 55% chance of being below normal. While the Atlantic is expected to be less active, forecasters predict above-normal activity in the eastern Pacific, potentially increasing risks for Mexico, southern California, and Hawaii. This forecast comes amid warnings from experts that the US may be unprepared due to staffing cuts under the Trump administration affecting the National Weather Service and NOAA's data collection and forecasting capabilities.