‘Closing his eyes’: Why is Russia’s Putin quiet on US abduction of Maduro?

In January 2026, the US abducted Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, who is now awaiting trial in New York on drug trafficking charges. Prior to the abduction, US military forces struck Russian-supplied air defense systems in Venezuela. Despite a defense cooperation treaty, Russia did not intervene militarily, and President Putin has remained publicly silent. Experts suggest this inaction damages Russia's international reputation, particularly as Maduro was a key ally in Latin America. However, some analysts believe Putin may see long-term benefits in the US action, as it could justify Russia's own interventions in Ukraine and Central Asia, establishing a new world order. The situation has sparked memes in Russia referencing leaders who were previously Moscow's allies but were toppled or fled to Russia.

In January 2026, President Trump's military attack on Venezuela and capture of its leader, Nicolás Maduro, prompted international concern. Trump justified the action by claiming Venezuela was "hosting foreign adversaries" and asserting American dominance in the Western Hemisphere. Analysts suggest the move could embolden Russia and China, who were allied with Maduro, to use similar justifications for aggression in their own spheres of influence. The attack introduces global uncertainty, potentially creating opportunities for Russia and China to pursue their interests more aggressively. Russia, in particular, may see this as a chance to revisit past proposals of geopolitical swaps, such as trading influence in Venezuela for reduced U.S. involvement in Ukraine.

In 2019, Russia reportedly offered the U.S. a deal: free rein in Venezuela in exchange for the U.S. allowing Russia a free hand in Ukraine. This proposal was revealed in Congressional testimony by Fiona Hill, then a National Security Council official. According to Hill, the offer was signaled through informal channels like commentators and newspaper articles. The Russian rationale was that if the U.S. desired a sphere of influence in its region, it should grant Russia the same in Ukraine. Hill stated that she personally rejected the proposal in Moscow. This offer occurred during heightened tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela, when Russia deployed military personnel to support President Maduro.