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El Niño May Be Back This Summer, Bringing Drought and Floods

2 articles
2 sources
0% diversity
Updated 12.2.2026
Key Topics & People
El Niño *National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Pacific Ocean Bureau of Meteorology Adam Morton

Coverage Framing

2
Environmental(2)
Avg Factuality:75%
Avg Sensationalism:Moderate

Story Timeline

Feb 12, 2026

1 articles|1 sources
el niñoweather patterndroughtfloodsclimate
Environmental(1)
New York Times - WorldFeb 12

El Niño May Be Back This Summer, Bringing Drought and Floods

El Niño, a Pacific Ocean weather pattern characterized by warm water, is predicted to return this summer, according to NOAA. The phenomenon, which occurs every three to seven years, could bring extreme weather events globally. While the strength of this El Niño is uncertain, it has the potential to cause heavy rainfall, powerful storms, and drought in various regions. Historically, El Niño has been linked to wetter winters in the Southern U.S. and drier conditions in the North, as well as impacting monsoons in India and causing drought in Australia and Southeast Asia. However, it can also suppress hurricane development in the Atlantic. Scientists will continue to refine forecasts in the coming months.

MeasuredFactual3 sources
Neutral

Key Claims

factual

In 2025, ocean heat content reached a record high for the fifth consecutive year.

— NOAA

factual

El Niño can cause strong winter storms, landslides, flooding, delay monsoons, and spark drought/wildfires.

— Shang-Ping Xie, Scripps Institution of Oceanography

factual

El Niño can shift the jet stream, making for a wetter winter in the Southern US and a drier winter in the Northern states.

— Michelle L’Heureux, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center

prediction

El Niño will return this summer, bringing potential for extreme rainfall, storms, and drought.

— article

statistic

There is a 50 to 60 percent chance of El Niño forming in the late summer and beyond.

— National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center

Feb 7, 2026

1 articles|1 sources
el niñoglobal temperaturesrecord highsclimate modelspacific ocean
Environmental(1)
The Guardian - World NewsFeb 7

Chance of El Niño forming in Pacific Ocean may push global temperatures to record highs in 2027

Climate scientists and weather agencies are suggesting that an El Niño event may form in the Pacific Ocean, potentially leading to record-breaking global temperatures in 2027. While the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Australia's Bureau of Meteorology acknowledge the possibility based on climate models, they also emphasize the uncertainties involved in these forecasts. Experts indicate that sea surface temperature patterns in the Pacific hint at a possible El Niño development. If an El Niño does occur, it could surpass the temperature records set in the previous three years, which were already the warmest on record. The El Niño phenomenon is expected to have a global impact, driving up average temperatures worldwide.

Mixed toneFactual2 sources
Negative

Key Claims

factual

The US government’s NOAA and Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology have said some climate models are forecasting an El Niño.

— Article's own claim

factual

Both NOAA and Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology cautioned those results came with uncertainties.

— Article's own claim

prediction

An El Niño forming in the Pacific Ocean could push global temperatures to all-time record highs in 2027.

— Weather agencies and climate scientists

prediction

One expert says 2027 could be even hotter than the last three years.

— One expert