Russia faces Ukraine casualties, broken communications and total oil ban

In February 2026, Russia intensified its air assaults on Ukraine, coinciding with visits from Western officials. These attacks, involving drones and missiles, targeted energy infrastructure across the country, causing widespread power outages and forcing a nuclear power plant to shut down. Ukrainian air defenses managed to intercept a significant portion of the incoming weapons. The strikes have resulted in civilian casualties, including the deaths of children in Bohodukhiv and elsewhere. Russia's actions are seen as an attempt to weaken Ukraine's defenses and punish its growing ties with the West. Emergency crews are working to restore power and heat amidst freezing temperatures.

On February 13, 2026, marking day 1,450 of the Russia-Ukraine war, Russia launched a barrage of missiles and drones targeting Ukrainian cities, including Kyiv, Odesa, and Dnipro, damaging energy infrastructure and residential buildings. The attacks resulted in casualties and left thousands without heating as temperatures dropped. In response, Ukraine reportedly struck an oil refinery in Russia's Komi Republic, causing a fire, and a Ukrainian attack in Russia's Belgorod region left over 220,000 without electricity. Despite the ongoing conflict, Ukraine continues to transport Russian oil to Slovakia and Hungary. The bodies of two Nigerians fighting for Russia were also found.

Russian drone and missile attacks across Ukraine have caused widespread power outages and left hundreds of thousands without essential services. In Odesa, nearly 300,000 people are without water and 200 buildings lack heating. Kyiv also experienced significant disruptions, with 3,500 buildings without heating due to power outages affecting thousands of high-rise buildings. The attacks, which occurred overnight, also injured four people in Dnipro, including two children. A thermal power plant belonging to DTEK suffered extensive damage in the eleventh large-scale attack on the company since October 2025. Ukraine's foreign minister condemned the attacks, stating they undermine diplomatic efforts to end the war and called for increased pressure on Moscow.

Western officials claim that Russian battlefield losses in Ukraine exceeded recruitment by approximately 9,000 in January. This suggests Ukraine's strategy to inflict heavier damage on Russian forces is gaining traction. Despite these losses, Russian forces failed to achieve significant territorial gains during the same period. Ukrainian officials aim to increase Russian losses to 50,000 per month by summer, hoping to strain Russia's ability to replace troops without further mobilization. While December saw Russian losses roughly equal to recruitment, the January deficit indicates a potential shift in the conflict's dynamics, although the sustainability of this trend remains uncertain. The assessment of Western officials could not be independently verified.