India’s Assam and Kerala states hold legislative assembly elections

Legislative assembly elections are underway in India, beginning with voting in Assam, Kerala, and the Union Territory of Puducherry on Thursday. These local elections, along with upcoming votes in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu later in the month, are viewed as a key test of support for Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Results for all elections are expected on May 4th. The BJP, which has governed Assam for two terms, is predicted to retain power there, while Kerala is expected to be won by parties opposed to the BJP. The BJP's campaign in Assam targeted Bengali-origin Muslims, despite not fielding any Muslim candidates in the state. These state elections are closely watched as indicators of voter sentiment towards the ruling coalition, even though they do not directly impact the stability of the federal government.

India has begun crucial state elections in Assam, Kerala, West Bengal, and Tamil Nadu, with results potentially indicating whether Prime Minister Modi's BJP can expand its power base. Unusually, the US and Israel's conflict with Iran is casting a shadow over the elections. Concerns about potential energy shocks, cooking gas shortages, and the fate of Indian migrant workers in the Middle East are influencing voters. While state elections typically focus on local issues, analysts suggest that global concerns are resonating with younger voters due to their impact on daily life. The federal government has attempted to mitigate the effects of the Iran conflict by reducing excise duties, but some sectors have experienced tighter cooking gas supplies.