How Trump’s threatened strikes on Iran could backfire

President Trump considered limited military strikes against Iran to pressure them into a new nuclear deal. The US has deployed significant military assets to the Middle East, providing options for potential operations. However, experts suggest that bombing Iran during negotiations could backfire, potentially derailing any deal and triggering retaliation. An unnamed senior government official stated that Iran would likely suspend talks if attacked. Analysts argue that military threats alone could make Iran less willing to negotiate. The purpose and potential achievements of renewed air strikes remain unclear, even with Trump setting a 10-15 day deadline.

In February 2026, President Trump is considering a second, potentially larger military campaign against Iran. This follows U.S. involvement in strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in June of the previous year, which resulted in a quick cease-fire. The Pentagon is currently undertaking a significant military buildup in the Middle East. The scope of the potential new operation is unclear, with possible targets ranging from nuclear sites and missile arsenals to regime change. Experts warn that ambiguity surrounding U.S. goals could lead Iran to perceive the offensive as an existential threat, potentially triggering a more significant and dangerous escalation compared to past conflicts.