Russia preparing possible ‘provocation’ in Baltic states or Poland, sources say

Sources from two NATO eastern flank countries have warned that Russia may be preparing "provocations" in the Baltic states or Poland. These actions are intended to test NATO's cohesion as Russia faces pressure from Ukraine's long-range attacks. Latvian intelligence indicated Russia is considering "hybrid attacks" like missile or drone strikes, rather than a full-scale invasion, to signal a demand to cease support for Ukraine. Western sources share concerns that Russia might retaliate if President Putin feels pressured by attacks on Russian territory. This comes as Russia's advance in Ukraine has stalled, and NATO prepares for its annual summit amid uncertainty regarding US commitment.

Latvian intelligence warns that Russia is preparing hybrid attacks, such as missile or drone strikes, against Baltic states or Poland to pressure NATO into ceasing support for Ukraine. These provocations are not expected to be conventional warfare, as Russia is currently incapable of such a conflict. A significant concern is that Russian President Vladimir Putin may miscalculate due to receiving distorted information from within his own institutions, potentially leading to rash decisions. This warning aligns with similar concerns raised by Polish officials, who describe a hybrid war against NATO's eastern flank as already underway, including cyberattacks and weaponized migration. Despite public claims, Western sanctions are reportedly having a real impact on Russia's economy. Russia is also intensifying "lawfare" by using legal mechanisms to pressure Western governments and create pretexts for future actions.