As Xi meets Trump, who’s winning their trade war?

As President Xi Jinping prepares for a state visit to the White House to meet President Donald Trump, the US-China trade war, a central policy of Trump's presidency since 2025, has seen significant tariff increases on both sides. Despite these measures, the US trade deficit with China has not decreased, and bilateral trade fell by 29% in 2025. China, meanwhile, has achieved a substantial global trade surplus of $1.2 trillion. The conflict extends beyond tariffs to include sanctions, export restrictions on critical minerals by China, and US curbs on advanced technology exports to Beijing. A tariff truce is set to expire soon, with trade and artificial intelligence competition high on the agenda for the upcoming talks.

The article discusses the upcoming meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Washington. The world will be observing if the two nations can achieve "constructive strategic stability" as agreed. Both leaders possess significant economic and geopolitical leverage, with analysts suggesting that their actions of restraint to avoid retaliation will also be a key part of the negotiations. The article highlights critical areas of fierce competition where cooperation could be possible, including artificial intelligence, military dialogue, trade, and biosafety.