Fears of return to war as Tigray rebels launch offensive against Ethiopian army

Fears of renewed civil war in Ethiopia are escalating following an offensive by Tigray rebels into the neighboring Afar and Amhara regions. The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), along with seven other armed groups, has formed the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival, aiming to overthrow Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government. The TPLF has seized control of three airports and launched attacks, with its vice-president declaring a "full-blown war." The federal army claims to have killed TPLF soldiers during these attacks. Analysts suggest potential Eritrean support for the TPLF, though the TPLF denies this. This renewed fighting challenges the 2022 peace agreement that ended the previous civil war, raising concerns about regional destabilization.

Ethiopia's army announced it has repelled attacks by Tigrayan forces and their allies in the northern Amhara region, near the border with Tigray. This is the military's first statement since fighting began on Wednesday. The army claims its soldiers inflicted heavy casualties and seized weapons during the hostilities. These developments follow a sharp escalation in tensions between the federal government and Tigrayan leaders, raising concerns about a potential resumption of civil war. On Wednesday, the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) reportedly seized control of three airports. Unconfirmed reports suggest TPLF forces have also attacked in the neighboring Afar and Amhara regions, with one source reporting heavy artillery attacks in Afar. The TPLF has not yet commented on the army's claims.

Fighting has escalated across northern Ethiopia, with armed groups clashing with federal troops in Tigray, Afar, and Amhara regions. This intensification follows the formation of the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival, a coalition of seven armed movements including the TPLF, which aims to remove Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government. Competing accounts exist regarding who initiated the current offensive, with the TPLF claiming federal forces launched an attack and a former TPLF figure advising the Prime Minister accusing the TPLF of starting it. The escalation has disrupted air travel, with Tigrayan forces reportedly seizing airports. The UN and regional bloc IGAD have expressed concern and called for dialogue.

Seven armed groups in Ethiopia have formed an alliance with the stated goal of overthrowing the government. This development has raised concerns about the possibility of renewed conflict within the country. The article does not specify when this alliance was formed or the exact nature of the offensive launched by these groups. The primary motivation behind the alliance, as presented, is the desire to depose the current administration. The formation of this coalition and their subsequent offensive are the central events leading to fears of renewed war.

Seven Ethiopian armed groups have formed the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival, pledging to remove Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. The alliance includes the TPLF, OLA, and Fano, among others, bringing together disparate conflicts under a single political framework. This development follows renewed clashes between federal and Tigrayan forces, including drone strikes and the seizure of Mekelle's airport, despite a peace agreement signed in November 2022. The TPLF claims the federal government has failed to honor the agreement, leading to escalating tensions. The alliance aims to establish a transitional administration after Abiy's removal.

Ethiopia's federal government and the Tigray region's authorities have accused each other of launching offensives, raising concerns about a renewed full-scale conflict. Getachew Reda, an advisor to Ethiopia's prime minister, stated that Tigrayan fighters seized federally administered airports in Tigray and initiated attacks in the neighboring Afar and Amhara regions. This follows earlier reports of drone strikes in Tigray, after which Tigrayan authorities declared their forces were engaged in a "defensive war." The two-year conflict between Ethiopia and Tigray concluded in 2022, but recent months have seen mutual accusations of peace deal violations. The Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) also announced an alliance with six other armed groups aiming to oust the Ethiopian government.