Ethiopia, Eritrea ramp up rhetoric: Are they inching towards war?

Ethiopia has accused Eritrea of troop incursions into its Tigray region, escalating tensions and raising fears of renewed conflict in the Horn of Africa. Ethiopia informed the UN Security Council that Eritrean forces had advanced significantly into Tigray, calling it an act of aggression. Eritrea denied the accusations, labeling them a pretext for an Ethiopian offensive and urging the UN to condemn Ethiopia's "declaration of war." These exchanges occur amidst ongoing fighting in northern Ethiopia and a broader dispute over Ethiopia's demand for Red Sea access, which Eritrea fears could lead to the seizure of its port. The situation is complicated by historical animosity, a recent peace agreement, and regional geopolitical rivalries.

Ethiopia has accused Eritrea of an "all-out invasion" of its northern Tigray region, with Eritrean troops reportedly advancing up to 60 kilometers into Ethiopian territory. Ethiopia's Foreign Minister stated this is a blatant act of aggression and engaged Ethiopia's right to self-defense, demanding Eritrean withdrawal. Eritrea has denied these claims, asserting it is facing a "war of aggression" from Ethiopia. Eritrea's Information Minister stated that Ethiopia has been pursuing an unprovoked war against Eritrea for over three years and accused Addis Ababa of seeking access to the Eritrean port of Assab. Eritrea also rejected Ethiopia's allegation that it is backing the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF). These accusations further strain the already volatile relationship between the two nations, with diplomatic ties recently severed.

Ethiopia has accused Eritrea of an "all-out invasion" of its northern Tigray region, warning it will defend itself after Eritrean troops reportedly crossed the border. Ethiopia's foreign minister informed the UN Security Council of this "blatant act of aggression," stating Eritrean forces have advanced up to 60km into Tigray. Eritrea's information minister countered, claiming Ethiopia initiated an "unprovoked war of aggression." This escalation follows two weeks of fighting between the Ethiopian government and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), with both sides accusing each other of violating a 2022 peace deal. Ethiopia alleges Eritrean support for the TPLF, a claim Eritrea denies. Relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea have recently deteriorated, leading to severed diplomatic ties last week.

Renewed fighting in Ethiopia's Tigray region has seen federal forces retake the capital, Mekelle, after rebel groups withdrew. This escalation has ended the 2022 Pretoria ceasefire and raised concerns about regional intervention. Eritrean troops have reportedly entered northern Tigray, adding a dangerous dimension to the conflict. Ethiopia's pursuit of Red Sea access is a strategic priority for Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, alarming neighbours like Egypt, Eritrea, Sudan, and Somalia, who have recently met to discuss shared concerns. Relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea have also deteriorated, with accusations of hostile acts and involvement in the renewed fighting. The conflict's trajectory remains uncertain, with potential for prolonged rebellion and further regional instability.

Ethiopian government forces launched drone attacks against Eritrean troops who had crossed into Ethiopia's Tigray region. This occurred on Wednesday and Thursday, following the Eritrean soldiers' incursion into Adigrat, a town 40km south of the border. The conflict monitoring group Acled reported these events. This escalation raises concerns about renewed internal conflict in Ethiopia potentially triggering a regional war between the two neighboring countries. Eritrea has a historical animosity with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), which recently launched an offensive against the Ethiopian government. Ethiopia's foreign ministry stated its readiness to defend its sovereignty, while Eritrea's information minister did not explicitly confirm or deny the presence of its troops in Ethiopia.

Witnesses reported seeing dozens of Eritrean soldiers in trucks driving through Adigrat, a town in northern Ethiopia approximately 25km from the Eritrean border, on Wednesday. These sightings occurred days after Ethiopia and Eritrea severed ties. A commander of the Tigray Peace Force stated that Eritrean army forces entered Tigray in uniform with heavy weaponry and are being struck by drones, suggesting Eritrea is deliberately deploying forces inside Tigray. Eritrea's Information Minister dismissed allegations of their troops entering Ethiopia, calling it a "fallacious narrative" by Ethiopia to justify its "war of aggression." If confirmed, this would be the first reported instance of Eritrean forces inside Ethiopia since fighting resumed between Ethiopian forces and an armed alliance on September 23.

Residents of Adigrat, Ethiopia, have reported seeing Eritrean troops and military vehicles moving south into the Tigray region. Multiple accounts describe convoys of trucks, some with Eritrean registration plates, carrying soldiers and heavy weapons, heading towards Edaga Hamus, a town situated between Adigrat and Mekelle. These movements follow the recent severance of diplomatic relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea amid renewed fighting in Tigray, which has raised concerns about a wider regional conflict. The BBC has been unable to report directly from Tigray but notes that mobile and internet access have been restored to most areas following the military takeover of Mekelle.