Five ways El Niño is affecting the weather around the world

The strongest El Niño on record is significantly impacting global weather patterns. In the eastern Pacific, El Niño has fueled an unusually active hurricane season, with 22 named storms and 12 hurricanes, including 10 major ones, due to higher ocean temperatures and weaker upper-level winds. This has led to events like Hurricane Polo's rapid intensification and multiple simultaneous hurricanes, a phenomenon not seen since 2015. Conversely, the Atlantic Ocean has been remarkably quiet, with El Niño increasing wind shear that disrupts storm formation. Only one hurricane, Isaias, has made landfall, and the season's tropical storm count is below average.

Meteorologists predict a milder Atlantic hurricane season due to a developing El Nino, which is expected to strengthen. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasts a 55% chance of a below-average season, with eight to 14 named storms, three to six hurricanes, and one to three major hurricanes. This outlook is shared by most private and academic forecasters, with some predicting even lower activity. El Nino typically suppresses Atlantic storm formation by creating wind shear that disrupts thunderstorms and pushes dry air into developing storms. While El Nino reduces the number and intensity of weaker storms, stronger hurricanes can persist. Conversely, the central and eastern Pacific are expected to experience a busier season.

Federal government scientists predict a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season for the US in 2026, with eight to 14 named storms. This milder forecast is attributed to a developing El Niño pattern in the Pacific. The season, running from June 1 to November 30, has a 55% chance of being below normal. While the Atlantic is expected to be less active, forecasters predict above-normal activity in the eastern Pacific, potentially increasing risks for Mexico, southern California, and Hawaii. This forecast comes amid warnings from experts that the US may be unprepared due to staffing cuts under the Trump administration affecting the National Weather Service and NOAA's data collection and forecasting capabilities.