Analysis: Syrian airbase attack is an Israeli message to Damascus, Ankara

Analysts say the attack on Abu al-Duhur was likely an Israeli message warning to not rebuild Syria’s air force.Syrian army fighter jets are seen at the Hama air force base on December 18, 2024, in Hama, Syria [Chris McGrath/Getty Images]Published On 18 Aug 2026Tuesday’s air strikes on an airbase in northwest Syria have been blamed on Israel, and, according to analysts, they are a message not just to the government in Damascus, but also to its ally, Turkiye.While Israel has yet to officially claim the attacks, Syria, the United States and Jordan have all said the attack on the Abu al-Duhur airbase in Idlib was the latest Israeli strike on its neighbour.Recommended Stories list of 3 itemslist 1 of 3Syria launches probe into death of ‘White Helmet’ rescuer in police custodylist 2 of 3Who is Wassim al-Assad, sentenced to death for Syria war atrocities?list 3 of 3Syria, US say Israel attacks airbase in Idlibend of list“Bombing an airbase means the Israeli army doesn’t want the new Syria to have any sort of air force in the coming years,” Kheder Khaddour, a nonresident scholar at the Malcolm H Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center, told Al Jazeera.Israel’s message to DamascusOn December 8, 2024, Syrian rebel forces took Damascus, overthrowing the regime of President Bashar al-Assad. In the subsequent hours, Israel’s air force attacked Syrian military bases and infrastructure, in strikes that are believed to have knocked out much of the new Syrian government’s air defence.In the hours after al-Assad’s fall, Israel also seized areas in the Syrian Golan Heights and illegally occupied the strategic point of Jabal al-Sheikh. Since then, Israel has set up checkpoints on Syrian territory, where it has harassed and at times kidnapped Syrian citizens.In March 2025, Israel struck two Syrian airbases – T4 in Homs and the Palmyra airbase – that the Reuters news agency had reported had previously been visited by Turkish military delegations. And then, in July of the same year, Israel bombed Syria’s Ministry of Defence in the heart of Damascus.Israeli officials have repeatedly stated that they see Syria’s new government as a threat, even though it has grown closer to the West – including the US. Israel’s government under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has also repeatedly warned Syria not to move troops south of Damascus – closer to the Israeli border – despite the new administration stating on multiple occasions that it does not seek a confrontation with Israel.“Syria has not been a threat to Israel, and there have been months of negotiations on a security deal between the two neighbours,” Asli Aydintasbas, an associate senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, told Al Jazeera. “Since the downfall of the al-Assad regime, Syrians have made it very clear that they are interested in peaceful relations with Israel, and that should matter.”There were no reported injuries in Tuesday’s attacks. International Crisis Group’s senior analyst for Syria, Nanar Hawach, said only airstrips and storage facilities were damaged, but that no jets were destroyed.Many analysts said the Israelis were trying to send a message that Syria should not rebuild its air force, which it has taken steps to do – such as repairing facilities and aircraft and training new personnel.“The Israelis are not happy about the Syrians having a functioning air force,” Samy Akil, a senior adviser with The Syria Report, told Al Jazeera. He said, however, that the remaining jets in the Syrian air force’s armoury posed little threat to the Israelis.Turkiye’s roleAnalysts also said the Israeli strike was likely a message directed at Turkiye.Turkiye was a backer of some anti-Assad rebel groups throughout the war, and continues to have a military presence in northern Syria.“Abu al-Duhur is close to Idlib and well within the Turkish sphere of influence,” Akil said.Israel has previously expressed concern and opposition to Turkish influence in Syria. Netanyahu has reportedly held security consultations over Ankara’s role in Syria and has talked up the threat from Turkiye, NATO’s second-largest army after the US.Naftali Bennett, the former Israeli prime minister who is also in the running to replace Netanyahu when Israel goes to the polls in October, has also called Turkiye “the new Iran”.Navvar Saban, a researcher in security and military affairs at the Arab Center for Contemporary Syrian Studies, compared the Abu al-Duhur attack to Israel’s March 2025 airbase attacks.Reuters reported that Turkish military teams had visited those airbases prior to the March attacks, although neither the Syrian nor Turkish governments confirmed the report.“The strike was probably less about destroying an immediate Syrian military threat and more about preventing the creation of a future military capability,” Saban said. “Israel appeared to be drawing a red line around possible reconstruction of Syrian military infrastructure, particularly where Turkish assistance could improve Syrian air capability or restrict the Israeli freedom of operation over Syria’s airspace.”