Russia and
Ukraine are locked in an escalating
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war of long-range strikes with a growing risk to civilians in which neither side can entirely prevail, according to
Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s defence technology adviser.
Serhii Beskrestnov, widely known by his call sign,
Flash, said he was worried about the prospects for
Kyiv this winter, and suggested elderly people should be evacuated in case Russian bombing were to knock out the capital’s energy supply.However, the rapid wartime evolution also gave
Ukraine the means to strike back, with plans to launch 1,000
drones a night to strike economic and military targets in
Russia and halt its commercial air traffic, he said.“Now, this is a
war of cities, a
war of infrastructure,” Beskrestnov told the Guardian, describing a conflict that is essentially deadlocked on the frontline, with civilians at increasing risk hundreds of miles away.“In this
war, nobody will win this game, because both countries, after the
war, will have destroyed economics, infrastructures. So it’s stupid. We should stop this
war. We proposed to
Russia to stop this
war, but
Russia does not want to stop,” he said.The ruins of the Rozetka e-commerce distribution hub in
Brovary,
Kyiv, after Russian strikes in early August. Photograph: Julia Kochetova/The GuardianBeskrestnov, 51, a radio specialist, was first appointed by the former defence minister
Mykhailo Fedorov as a technology adviser in January, before being taken on directly in July, after the latter’s dismissal.The adviser, who survived a drone attack on his home in April, agreed that “attack had become more powerful than defence”, because both sides’ air defences could not keep up with the number of missiles and
drones available.
Russia could engage in a sustained bombing of electricity, water and heating systems in
Kyiv this winter with the high-speed ballistic missiles it was producing at a rate of more than 100 a month, Beskrestnov said.Earlier this week,
Vladimir Putin said
Russia’s military had been “ordered to prepare and carry out mass strikes” on
Ukraine’s energy facilities, showing no sign of halting the
war.“For me, it’s horrible,” Beskrestnov said. “We are talking about 2 to 3 million people, and
Russia understands it can create a disaster in
Kyiv.” City authorities should think about evacuating civilians in advance, particularly elderly people, he added, while emphasising he was not making an official statement.People gathered outside after a Russian attack in the Solomianskyi district of
Kyiv last month. Photograph: Julia Kochetova/The GuardianUkraine is desperately short of US Patriot air defence interceptors, the main weapon capable of halting ballistic missiles, and Beskrestnov said he was “not sure” that Zelenskyy could obtain enough from abroad to prevent a crisis. Last month, the president said he wanted to secure 300 Patriot interceptors for the winter.Beskrestnov predicted
Ukraine would “attack
Russia more and more with deep strikes”, continuing a campaign that has resulted in factories, warehouses and oil refineries being bombed. “We have a target from our president to increase the quantity of attacks to 1,000 a day,” he said, rising from its current level of about 300.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced this week that
Ukraine would attempt to use
drones to halt civilian aviation in
Russia. Photograph: David Levene/The GuardianAddressing Zelenskyy’s announcement this week that there would be a sustained attempt by
Ukraine to halt civil aviation inside
Russia with the
drones, Beskrestnov said: “I think it’s very simple: it’s not necessary for us to attack an airport, it’s just enough for us to fly at the airport and the airport will be closed.”
Russia has also made a series of advances that have boosted its attack potential, including its first suspected use of artificial intelligence. Ukrainian investigators concluded that a simple Molniya drone that killed a person near a Zaporizhzhia gas station in July was being guided not by radio but by AI.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotion“I’m just afraid what happens in the future because I think it’s just a question of time before
Russia installs this technology in a Shahed,” he said, referring to the country’s standard long-range drone. It could render
Ukraine’s “huge jamming network” obsolete without any radio communication to jam.Beskrestnov said
Ukraine was working on its own autonomous
drones – “We have a prototype” – but that he believed
Russia appeared to have more scale right now.
Russia has also developed a new wave of
drones and missiles powered by Chinese-made jet engines that can fly at more than 200mph (320km/h), faster than the first generation of cheap Shahed interceptors that
Ukraine has developed.Moscow fired 2,500 jet-powered Shahed
drones into
Ukraine in August, up from 1,500 in July, and was planning to make “about 36,000 in 2027”, Beskrestnov said. It also planned to build another 30,000 of the slower piston-engine type next year.Jet-powered Shaheds are already being used to threaten
Kyiv and other big cities for hours at a time, but they will be complemented by another 10,000 cheap Banderol cruise missiles during 2027, plus a further 10,000 Dan-T missiles, boosting
Russia’s ability to bomb
Ukraine’s infrastructure.People sleeping at Dorohozhychi subway station because of the threat of Russian night attacks. Photograph: Julia Kochetova/The GuardianFour to six Ukrainian companies were working on jet interceptors, Beskrestnov said, but they were “not ready for final production”, giving Moscow a window of advantage. The adviser would not give a timeframe for when the interceptors would be ready. At present, fighter jets take the lead in shooting down jet
drones.Civilian casualties have been rising as long-range attacks increase. According to the UN, 437 civilians were killed and 2,610 injured in
Ukraine in July (the last month for which figures are available), the highest since March 2022. Accurate figures for
Russia are not readily available.Beskrestnov said the dismissal of Fedorov as defence minister after a clash with Zelenskyy was “a pity”, though the change in his own role meant the scope of his work had expanded beyond the armed forces to include the national guard and across government.His role, he said, was technical and advisory and he sought to avoid becoming embroiled in personality clashes. “Don’t mix me with politics. Politics always has a part of garbage, rubbish,” he said.