The far right’s march to power in Sweden has been halted, but its influence remains

Since the party was founded in 1988, the story of the far-right Sweden-democrats" class="entity-link entity-organization" data-entity-id="9626" data-entity-type="organization">Sweden Democrats (SD) has been one of such continuous growth that a triumph in Sunday’s general election seemed inevitable.In 2022, the party capitalised on electoral gains – and the desperation of right-leaning parties to form a minority administration – and almost made its way into government. A supporting role in prime minister Ulf Kristersson’s Tidö coalition earned the party, which has neo-Nazi roots, huge influence and mainstream acceptance by the political establishment.This year’s election had been billed as final confirmation they were no longer pariahs but serious political heavyweights. Early in the campaign, Kristersson announced that, if his coalition were to win, the SD would take key ministerial positions. But Sunday’s results suggest the march of the far right into the heart of Sweden’s government has been halted – for now.Having fallen from Sweden’s second biggest party to third place and, with the right-leaning parties unlikely to be able to form a coalition, the SD appears to have lost its route into government.“What we saw yesterday [Sunday] was a historic setback for the Sweden-democrats" class="entity-link entity-organization" data-entity-id="9626" data-entity-type="organization">Sweden Democrats,” says Niclas Nilsson, a lecturer and researcher at the anti-racism foundation Expo. “The party has grown in every government election since 1988.”The SD’s leader, Jimmie Åkesson, appeared visibly shocked when he addressed supporters late on election night. He said it was obvious they had lost some percentage points, but claimed they were still “winners”. He appeared to suggest his decision to be a team player and support coalition partner the Liberals may have played a role in their loss of support.Åkesson appeared visibly shocked by the Sweden-democrats" class="entity-link entity-organization" data-entity-id="9626" data-entity-type="organization">Sweden Democrats’ setback at a party election-night event. Photograph: Pontus Lundahl/TT News Agency/AFP/Getty ImagesIt is perhaps too soon to say why the party shed votes, said Nilsson, but some of its supporters may have gone to the Moderates, who had a good night.Another factor may have been that, after four years closely involved with the government, the SD is no longer able to claim it is an anti-establishment party. Turnout was about 80%, comparatively low for Sweden, which may also have played a role.There is also the fact that much of what the SD stand for has now become part of the Swedish political norm: anti-immigration, harsh approaches to crime and punishment, an attitude to integration that puts the onus on people moving to Sweden to abandon their culture and religion to adapt to “Swedish” norms.Their influence has spread to the centre-left Social Democrats who – after losing the last election – shifted their crime, immigration and integration strategies to the right.If the Moderates end up joining a coalition government with the Social Democrats, then the SD will be the biggest party in opposition, meaning it will still have a prominent role on the national stage. But if the Social Democrats are able to form a government without the Moderates, then the SD will again be on the outside looking in, which could help steer national conversation, politics and societal norms away from the right.Magdalena Andersson, the leader of the centre-left Social Democratic party, oversaw a rise in support by shifting to the right. Photograph: Denis Balibouse/ReutersHow it responds to this moment will be key – to the party’s survival and the tenor of Swedish politics.But if, with no centre-right parties to answer to, they end up going further right to reinvigorate their base, it could have consequences in the future – and bring Swedish politics to new lows, Nilsson warned.After all, there is no shortage of far-right support in Sweden. Recruitment, the spread of ideas and mobilisation by far-right groups known as active clubs continue to grow without regulation or political rules – regardless of what is going on in Sweden’s parliament.