US-Iran tensions soar: What do both sides want?

EXPLAINERFrom enriched uranium and ballistic missiles to sanctions and regional influence, the US and Iran have very different demands.The USS Abraham Lincoln, a Nimitz-class nuclear-powered aircraft carrier that has been deployed to the Arabian Sea, is seen at Naval Air Station North Island in San Diego, California, on August 11, 2025 [Mike Blake/Reuters]Published On 29 Jan 2026|Updated: 35 minutes agoThe United States and Iran are engaged in increasingly hostile rhetoric as US warships move into the Arabian Sea, despite regional nations seeking a diplomatic solution to prevent a military flare-up.US President Donald Trump warned this week that “time is running out” for Iran to return to talks to reach a new deal on its nuclear programme.Trump said the naval forces he was sending to Iran’s neighbourhood were even greater than those that he deployed to the coast of Venezuela before US special forces abducted the South American country’s president, Nicolas Maduro, in a military assault on Caracas on January 3.(Al Jazeera)Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi hit back at Trump’s threats, warning that his nation’s military was ready “with their fingers on the trigger”. He added that they would “immediately and powerfully respond” to any new US attack.The escalation comes seven months after US bombers attacked Iranian nuclear facilities during Tehran’s 12-day war with Israel last year. Iran retaliated by striking Qatar’s Al Udeid Air Base, which is used by US forces. During its war with Israel, Iran also struck several Israeli cities with missiles.Earlier this month, Trump told Iranian protesters who were clashing with security forces that “help” was on the way, threatening to bomb Iran. However, he has since walked back his warning, seemingly accepting Tehran’s assurances that arrested protesters would not be executed.As Iran and the US appear to be headed towards a new military escalation, key demands from both sides appear to be primarily the same as they have been for years.We unpack what they are:What the US wants Iran to doHistorically, the US has imposed sanctions on Iran for a range of reasons, from punishment for the hostage crisis in 1979 – when, after the Iranian Revolution, students took over the US embassy with staff inside – to supposed concern for the human rights of Iranians.But over the past two decades, US pressure against Iran, including through crippling economic sanctions that have devastated the country’s middle class, has largely focused on Tehran’s nuclear and ballistic missiles programme.Nuclear programmeThe US and some of its Western allies insist that Iran’s programme is aimed at building nuclear weapons, even though Tehran has insisted that it is only developing a civilian programme to meet energy needs.Under a nuclear deal that Iran agreed with the US during President Barack Obama’s administration – known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) – Tehran capped its uranium enrichment at 3.67 percent and its enriched uranium stockpile at 300kg (660lb). This was enough for Iran to use for nuclear power plants, but far from adequate for weapons. In exchange, the US lifted most sanctions previously imposed on Iran.At 60 percent enrichment, uranium is considered ready to be developed for weapons. At 90 percent, it is considered fully weapons-grade.But Trump withdrew the US from this deal in his first term as president, in May 2018, and reimposed sanctions against Tehran. Iran appeared to try to stick to its end of the agreement for a while, along with European powers, Russia and China, who were all co-signatories to the Obama deal. Trump’s successor, Joe Biden, however, kept most of Trump’s sanctions in place, even though he had been Obama’s vice president.In his second term as president, Trump has further ramped up economic coercion against Iran, which also began rapidly enriching its uranium.In May 2025, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) warned that Iran had stockpiled more than 400kg (880lb) of uranium enriched to 60 percent. Though weapons need uranium that’s more than 90 percent enriched, no non-nuclear weapons state is known to keep uranium enriched to levels as high as 60 percent.The US and Israel cited the IAEA warning as justification for bombing Iran in June.“There has been a consistent lobby in Washington arguing that Iran achieving nuclear weapon capability is an enormous threat to the US and the wider world, and the US government knows that this fear is widely held in America,” Christopher Featherstone, associate lecturer at the Department of Politics, University of York, told Al Jazeera.The US now demands that: Iran must not build nuclear weapons, and it must abandon even a civilian nuclear programme. Iran must not enrich uranium at all – not even to very low levels that would be useless for military purposes. Iran must hand over any enriched uranium it already has. Ballistic missilesIsraeli bombs and missiles killed more than 1,000 Iranians during the June war. But while far fewer – 32 – Israelis died in retaliatory Iranian attacks, Tehran’s ballistic missiles frequently managed to breach Israel’s vaunted Iron Dome, hitting several cities.Since then, US and Israeli concerns about Iran’s ballistic missiles have grown. Iran’s Emad, Khorramshahr, Ghadr, Sejjil and Soumar ballistic and cruise missiles have ranges between 1,700km and 2,500 km (1,056-1,553 miles).That puts Israel and all US military bases in the Middle East within the range of these missiles.The US now demands that: Iran must curb the number and range of its ballistic missiles. (Al Jazeera)Regional influenceThe US’s third key demand involves Iran’s influence in its region, stitched together through alliances with governments, religious movements and armed resistance groups.That so-called “axis of resistance” has suffered body blows over the past two years. In Syria, Bashar al-Assad’s regime, a close partner, fell in December 2024; in Lebanon, Israel decimated the leadership of Hezbollah; while Hamas in Gaza and the Houthis in Yemen have also been bloodied in wars since 2023.Still, many of these and other groups that Iran has traditionally supported remain active and alive. Earlier this week, the Iraq-based Kataib Hezbollah, for instance, warned of a “total war” if the US were to attack Iran.The US demands that: Iran must end its support and links with armed resistance groups across the region. What Iran wants the US to doIran, meanwhile, has its own set of demands of the US.Economic sanctionsUS sanctions, first imposed on Iran in 1979, have grown increasingly harsh in recent years, leading to shortages, inflation and economic decline.Iran’s oil exports fell by 60-80 percent after Trump reimposed sanctions in 2018, robbing the government in Tehran of tens of billions of dollars in annual revenues.The currency has crashed, hitting a record low of 1,500,000 rials to the dollar this week and leading to soaring inflation and a surge in the prices Iran must pay for everything it imports.As a result, Iran’s middle class has shrunk dramatically in recent years.Iran demands that: The US must end economic sanctions, including the secondary sanctions that, in effect, coerce other nations from doing business with Tehran. Nuclear programmeIran has consistently argued that its nuclear programme is civilian in nature.But since the joint attacks by Israel and the US last year, and the reimposition of sanctions on Tehran in recent months by the United Nations and European nations, hardliners in the country have been pressuring the government to instead race towards producing a nuclear bomb.While the Iranian establishment has officially not shifted its position on the subject, it wants: Iran to continue to have a nuclear programme, even if with some limits. Iran to continue to be able to enrich uranium, even if with some limits. A new understanding before allowing IAEA inspectors back into the country. Iran believes that the IAEA’s report on its enriched uranium last year was designed to provide the US and Israel with justification for their attacks. Ballistic missilesIran believes its ballistic missiles offer it much-needed protection against regional threats, especially Israel.That these missiles have the capacity to batter Israeli cities and reach US bases in the region gives Tehran leverage.Iran wants: To be allowed to keep its ballistic missiles programme. Regional influenceIran’s alliances and partnerships in its neighbourhood are embedded in a complex web of ideological affiliations, political commitments – such as to the Palestinian cause – and strategic calculations.It has lost al-Assad as an ally, and Hezbollah has been weakened. But Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei alluded in December 2024 to Tehran’s belief that: Its alliances and influence in the region can continue to survive these losses. How close are we to a war?This all depends on Trump and how back-channel negotiations that are ongoing between the US and Iran proceed.US allies in the region, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, have said they will not allow their airspace to be used for any attack on Iran. Qatar has been leading efforts to find a diplomatic solution.Still, the US has been beefing up its military presence off Iran. The USS Abraham Lincoln, a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, is now in the Arabian Sea.In June, Trump bombed three nuclear sites in Iran, including deeply buried facilities at Fordow.And while Trump has called for talks, Featherstone from the University of York said: “It will take an enormous diplomatic effort to see a negotiation of any real meaning.”Given Trump’s track record of ripping apart the Obama-era nuclear deal, Iran “will be unlikely to trust him as a negotiation partner”, Featherstone said. “I also don’t think European allies will want to help Trump with these negotiations as he is so unpredictable and erratic.”Iran has publicly stated that it does not wish to enter negotiations with the US while under threat of military action.Despite this, Iran is likely to at least attempt talks, said Roxane Farmanfarmaian, lecturer in international relations at the University of Cambridge.“The crippling sanctions by the US are raising food prices and squeezing an already waning middle class and working population,” she told Al Jazeera. “Thus the economic malaise is real, and the leadership has few options but to negotiate with the US to lift the sanctions, something it will likely attempt as it knows that if it fails, not only will the economy collapse, but outside interference could lead to chaos and possibly a division of Iran into different parts.”For this reason, she said, Trump will likely continue with his plan to pressure Iran into “nuclear surrender” and avoid all-out war. “A war now might truly embroil the whole Gulf, which Trump can’t afford,” she said. “This may force Trump to the negotiating table, and a quick deal may be in the offing, but his deals tend to be self-serving – as the Venezuela one was with all of Venezuela’s oil revenues now going into a fund in Qatar that he controls – so the chances of a good deal that actually holds is low.Another approach to pressure Iran, Farmanfarmaian added, would be for the US to seize Kharg Island, where 90 percent of Iran’s oil is processed and exported.Doing that “would cut off Tehran’s financial lifeline”, she said. “That would make an Iran case similar to the Venezuelan case – a quick win, which Trump likes. The prospect of getting mired in a war in Iran with possible regional consequences has clearly held his hand so far.”