Flávio Bolsonaro rides right-wing wave to win first round of Brazil election

Flávio Bolsonaro rides right-wing wave to win first round of Brazil electionFlávio Bolsonaro's success in Brazil's presidential election is being hailed as the result of a "blue wave" - the latest example of a resurgence of right-wing support sweeping Latin America.But despite missing an outright majority – meaning there will be a second round later this month – the unexpectedly clear first round victory leaves his left-wing opponent needing an unprecedented result to retain the presidency.Senator Bolsonaro is the eldest son of ex-president Jair Bolsonaro, who became known as the "Trump of the Tropics" due to his ideological alignment with the US president.The younger Bolsonaro is 45 years old and is part of the-right wing political dynasty initiated by his father.He had never before run for the presidency and surprised observers by finishing ahead of the 80-year-old president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, of the Workers' Party.All polls had indicated a close race, with Lula and Bolsonaro statistically tied. But that was not what happened on Sunday. Flávio obtained 56.1 million votes, while Lula received 53.8 million.Part of Bolsonaro's success at the ballot box may be related less to his popularity and more to the numbers of people rejecting Lula.Bolsonaro has presented himself as a dynamic young politician connected to the demands of younger voters, including concerns about rising crime rates in a country that records more than 40,000 homicides annually.But polling groups such as Datafolha, one of Brazil's most respected institutes, suggest that this election has been a battle of rejection rates.Its most recent survey suggested that, on the eve of the election, both candidates had the same rejection rate with voters: 45%.The problem for Lula, however, appeared to be worse.One poll showed that 49% disapproved of his government, while the approval rate stood at 48%.Analysts had been saying that never before in Brazilian history had a president managed to seek re-election with such a high disapproval rate.Voter dissatisfaction with Lula's government shows that the left-wing leader is facing a paradox. The official unemployment rate is at its lowest level in history, around 5.3%. Average income is also at its highest level since records began.Despite the economy's apparent solid performance, Brazilians have shown considerable dissatisfaction with their current living conditions.In an attempt to address this issue, Lula increased by 15% the value of Bolsa Família, the government's main social welfare program. He also banned online gambling, which was legalised in 2018 and has since been blamed for widespread household income losses due to addiction.Getty ImagesFlávio Bolsonaro is part of the-right wing political dynasty initiated by his fatherA second factor behind Flávio Bolsonaro's success is the way he positioned himself in relation to the Brazilian Supreme Court.He spent much of his campaign criticising the court's actions, in way similar way to his father when he was president.Bolsonaro criticised the conviction of his father by the same court for an attempted coup d'état in 2023, when thousands of people invaded the buildings of the three branches of government in Brasília. It was compared to the 6 January Capitol Hill attack in 2021 in Washington DC.Bolsonaro senior's 27-year prison sentence in 2025 was heavily criticised by the right and remained controversial, particularly because of the role played by Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who oversaw the case and was close to Lula.Flávio Bolsonaro was also able to use another controversy involving Moraes to his political advantage: the Banco Master corruption scandal involving the Brazilian banker Daniel Vorcaro, who was arrested in March.Vorcaro is alleged to have orchestrated one of Brazil's largest financial frauds, embroiling senior figures across the political spectrum.Lula was also impacted by the scandal indirectly, after police suggested Vorcaro had reached out to Moraes to ask for help avoiding arrest. Moraes denies any wrongdoing.Moraes was not appointed by Lula but is seen as his ally, given Moraes presided over Jair Bolsonaro's coup trial.A second aspect of Flávio Bolsonaro's victory goes beyond the presidential election.In the Senate, the Liberal Party, led by the Bolsonaros, jumped from 15 seats to 28. The strength of the Bolsonaro family can be seen by the fact that the ex-president's wife, Michelle, and another son, Carlos, were both elected for the Senate.Lula faces an extremely difficult task. Never before has a candidate who trailed after the first round managed to overturn the deficit and win in the second round.Political analyst Dora Kramer, writing for Folha de S Paulo, argues that both Lula and Flávio will have to focus their efforts on independent voters.Brazilians like to say that politics in their country is so unstable that not even the past is predictable. At this point, a comeback by Lula seems more distant, though not impossible.In any case, even if he succeeds in achieving an unprecedented reversal against Flávio Bolsonaro, one thing is certain: the Bolsonarist right has consolidated itself as an unavoidable political force.