Gradually, then suddenly, the world is waking up to the US threat

In Ernest Hemingway’s The Sun Also Rises, Mike Campbell described how he went bankrupt: “Gradually, and then suddenly.” Over the past weeks, there is a feeling that US President Donald Trump and his administration have reached the “suddenly” bit.First, Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney captivated a World Economic Forum audience when he described the “rupture” in the rules-based order, a “bargain” that “no longer works”: leaving middle countries like Canada with no choice but to dilute their reliance on the United States and collaborate with each other to build “a third path”.Despite Canada’s huge reliance on the US, which accounts for around three-quarters of exports, Carney said: “When the rules no longer protect you, you must protect yourself.” If a country so exposed to Trump’s hegemonic wrath has the courage and exasperation to give voice to the need for a “de-risking” imperative, imagine the thoughts of countries less exposed.Carney made his “de-risking” strategy clear: he described Canada’s “comprehensive strategic partnership” with the European Union, and 12 other trade and security deals struck over the past six months, including with India, Australia, Thailand, the Philippines, Mercosur, Qatar and – most recently and controversially – China.Second, take “the mother of all trade deals” sealed this week: the EU’s agreement with India. This is intended to double the bloc’s exports to India by 2032. It follows deals recently signed with Mercosur, Indonesia, Mexico and Switzerland, all intended to hedge against Europe’s dependence on the US market. The sudden completion of deals with India and Mercosur is particularly significant, after decades of foot-dragging.Then take UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who has spent most of the past week in China – the first visit by a UK leader since 2018. In recent years, Britain had reportedly engaged less with China than with the Soviet Union during the Cold War.