Deadly Islamabad bombing sharpens focus on cross-border attacks in Pakistan

Analysts warn mosque attack in Pakistan could inflame sectarian fault lines in an already volatile security landscape.Police commandos take positions at the site of a bomb explosion at a Shia mosque, in Islamabad, Pakistan, Friday, February 6, 2026 [Anjum Naveed/AP]Published On 7 Feb 2026Lahore, Pakistan – As funerals were held on Saturday for more than 30 people killed in a suicide bombing at a mosque in Islamabad, analysts warned the attack could be part of a broader attempt to inflame sectarian tensions in the country.A suicide bomber struck the Khadija Tul Kubra Mosque, a Shia place of worship, in the Tarlai Kalan area of southeastern Islamabad during Friday prayers.Recommended Stories list of 4 itemslist 1 of 4‘Like a graveyard’: Why sectarian tensions simmer in Pakistan’s Kurramlist 2 of 4As Pakistan, Afghanistan attack each other, what’s next for neighbours?list 3 of 4Attacks in Pakistan buttressed by region’s ‘militant’ landscape: Analystslist 4 of 4At least 31 killed, dozens wounded in suicide blast at Islamabad mosqueend of listIn a statement, the Islamabad administration said 169 people were transferred to hospitals after rescue teams reached the site.Hours later, a splinter faction of the ISIL (ISIS) group in Pakistan claimed responsibility on its Telegram channel, releasing an image it said showed the attacker holding a gun, his face covered and eyes blurred.Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Asif said mosque security guards tried to intercept the suspect, who opened fire before detonating explosives among worshippers. He alleged the attacker had been travelling to and from Afghanistan.Security officials on Saturday told Al Jazeera that several key arrests had been made, including close family members of the suicide bomber in Peshawar and Karachi. They did not clarify whether there was evidence of their involvement in the plot.Capital under fire?Islamabad had seen a relative lull in violence in past years, but things have changed in recent months. The bombing marked the second major attack in the federal capital since a suicide blast targeted a district court in November last year.Abdul Sayed, a Sweden-based analyst on conflict in Afghanistan and Pakistan, said ISIL’s Pakistan branch, referred to as ISPP, claimed responsibility for what appears to be its deadliest operation in the country since its formation in May 2019.“Since its formation, ISPP has carried out approximately 100 attacks, more than two-thirds of which occurred in Balochistan. These attacks include three suicide bombings targeting Afghan Taliban members, police, and security forces in Balochistan,” Sayed, founder of the Oxus Watch research platform, told Al Jazeera.Pakistan has witnessed a steady rise in violence from fighters over the past three years. Data released by the Pak Institute of Peace Studies for 2025 recorded 699 attacks nationwide, a 34 percent increase compared with the previous year.Islamabad has repeatedly accused the Afghan Taliban, who returned to power in August 2021 following the withdrawal of United States forces, of providing a haven to armed groups that launch attacks inside Pakistan from Afghan soil.The Afghan Taliban condemned Friday’s mosque bombing and have consistently denied sheltering anti-Pakistan fighters.In October, this very issue ignited the deadliest border clashes between the two sides in years, which killed dozens of people and led to evacuations on both sides.A United Nations report last year stated that the Afghan Taliban provides support to the Pakistan Taliban, or TTP, which has carried out multiple attacks across Pakistan.The report also said the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) has ties with both the TTP and ISIL’s affiliate in Khorasan Province (ISKP), indicating a convergence of groups with distinct but intersecting agendas.Just days ago, Pakistan’s military concluded a weeklong security operation in the restive southwestern Balochistan province, claiming the deaths of 216 fighters in targeted offensives.A military statement on Thursday said it followed the province-wide attacks by the separatist BLA carried out to “destabilise the peace of Balochistan”.Fahad Nabeel, who heads the Islamabad-based consultancy Geopolitical Insights, said Pakistan is likely to maintain its hardened stance towards Kabul, citing what he described as Afghanistan’s failure to act against anti-Pakistan fighter groups.He added that officials would probably share preliminary findings of the investigation and point to a possible Afghan link.“The upward trajectory of terrorist attacks witnessed last year is expected to continue this year. Serious efforts need to be made to identify networks of facilitators based in and around major urban centres, who are facilitating militant groups to carry out terrorist attacks,” Nabeel told Al Jazeera.Sectarian fault linesManzar Zaidi, a Lahore-based security analyst, cautioned against equating the latest bombing with the district court attack last year.Mourners offer funeral prayers as they stand around the coffin of a Shia Muslim, a day after a suicide bombing at a mosque in Islamabad on February 7, 2026 [AFP]“The last year’s attack was essentially a target on a state institution, whereas this one was plainly sectarian in nature, something that has certainly gone done in the recent times, and that is why I will urge caution against a knee-jerk reaction to conflate the two incidents,” he told Al Jazeera.Shia make up more than 20 percent of Pakistan’s population of about 250 million. The country has experienced periodic bouts of sectarian violence, particularly in Kurram district in northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, which borders Afghanistan.Regional tensions have added to domestic anxieties.Zaidi said armed groups in the region backed by Iran remain alert amid “the simmering geopolitical tensions”.“For Pakistan, it really has to keep a close eye on how things develop in Kurram region, where things can get out of control and there could be a fallout. The region currently has an uneasy peace; that can easily be instabilised,” he said.Kurram, a tribal district bordering Afghanistan, has a roughly equal Sunni and Shia population. It has long been a flashpoint for sectarian clashes and witnessed prolonged fighting last year.Nabeel said a timely conclusion to the investigation could shape the government’s response and help prevent the attack from becoming a trigger for wider sectarian unrest.“However, the possibility of low-intensity sectarian targeting in different parts of the country is likely,” he warned.Sayed added that an examination of Pakistani nationals who joined ISIL and affiliated groups shows that many came from anti-Shia Sunni armed organisations.“The role of these sectarian elements is therefore an important factor in understanding such attacks. Moreover, such attacks appear significant in facilitating further recruitment of anti-Shia Sunni extremists within Pakistan, thereby contributing to IS efforts to strengthen its networks in the country,” he said.