Is southern Yemen’s next phase being decided on the ground?

In southern Yemen, security and military control are increasingly shaping the balance of power in government-controlled governorates, overshadowing political considerations. A complex security structure has emerged, comprised of official units and those formed during the war with support from the UAE, such as the Southern Transitional Council (STC). Despite the STC's declared dissolution in some areas in January 2026, its security and military formations persist, with some redeployed and others remaining unaccounted for. In Aden, security agencies operate within a complicated structure, reflecting ongoing efforts to rebalance power rather than definitively resolve the situation. The Saudi-Emirati rift also impacts stability, further complicating the unification of military command and security control across the southern governorates.

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