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A war foretold: how the CIA and MI6 got hold of Putin’s Ukraine plans and why nobody believed them

The Guardian - World NewsEN 35 min read 100% complete by Written by Shaun WalkerFebruary 20, 2026 at 11:00 AM
A war foretold: how the CIA and MI6 got hold of Putin’s Ukraine plans and why nobody believed them
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AI Summary

long article 35 min

In November 2021, CIA Director William Burns traveled to Moscow to warn Vladimir Putin about the consequences of a potential invasion of Ukraine, based on US intelligence. Putin dismissed Burns' warnings, citing perceived threats from the US. Burns left Moscow with a strong conviction that Putin would invade. Despite accurate intelligence from the US and UK regarding Russia's plans, many other countries' intelligence services were skeptical. Three and a half months later, Putin launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The article highlights the intelligence gathering efforts of the US and UK and explores why other nations did not share their assessment.

Key Entities & Roles

Key Player Opposition Context
Moscow 30% European security order 40% MI6 40% Kremlin ×240% CIA ×250% United States ×250% Joe Biden 60% Russia ×360% William Burns ×270% Ukraine ×380% Vladimir Putin ×380%

Keywords

ukraine invasion 100% intelligence 90% putin 80% mi6 70% cia 70% us intelligence 60% war plans 60% biden 50% russia 50% security order 40%

Sentiment Analysis

Negative
Score: -0.40

Source Transparency

Source
The Guardian - World News
Classification Confidence
90%
Geographic Perspective
Ukraine

This article was automatically classified using rule-based analysis.

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ukraine invasionintelligenceputinmi6ciaus intelligencewar plansbidenrussiasecurity order
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