Hong Kong inflation risks grow as war in Middle East escalates, experts warn

Hongkongers may begin to feel the impact of the escalating war in the Middle East in the coming months, as rising global oil prices are expected to push up energy bills and dining costs, according to experts.Analysts said the attacks on Iran by the United States and Israel, and subsequent retaliation across the region, were also likely to slow the pace of US interest rate cuts and curb the rise in Hong Kong housing prices.As military operations in the Middle East entered their fourth day, global oil prices continued to rise on Tuesday, prompting more major financial institutions to revise their forecasts. Goldman Sachs and Barclays had both indicated that Brent crude could reach the US$100-per-barrel mark if tensions escalated further.Despite the volatility in global energy markets, experts suggested the spillover effect on Hong Kong’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) might remain contained in the near term, though utility costs and restaurant prices were facing increased pressure.Billy Mak Sui-choi, an associate professor at Baptist University’s department of accountancy, economics and finance, said it was too early to predict a significant surge in local inflation.He noted that the largest components of Hong Kong’s CPI – private housing rents and food costs – were not directly linked to crude oil.