The Iran strikes could become a midterm reckoning – for Trump and Israel

Conservative dissent over the war is fracturing the GOP and testing the durability of US support for Israel before the 2026 midterms.Tucker Carlson, influential right-wing journalist and critic of Israeli influence over American politics, is seen at a meeting with President Donald Trump and oil executives in the East Room of the White House, Friday, January 9, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon) (AP)Professor in the Media Studies program at the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies.Published On 4 Mar 2026It is clear that the latest United States-Israel-Iran war stands to fundamentally reshape the politics of the Middle East. Less obvious is its immediate impact on US politics, especially the 2026 midterm elections and the durability of US support for Israel.While the core of US President Donald Trump’s base has come out in support of the joint US-Israel strikes, some influential figures on the American right have denounced them. These condemnations have heightened tensions already at play within the MAGA (Make America Great Again) base, and dovetail with conservative concerns about Israel’s influence over US foreign policy.With the midterm elections approaching, this is not a good time for intraparty division. Conservative quarrelling over war with Iran and broader support for Israel could cost Republicans in November.The stakes for Republicans are high: All 435 seats in the US House of Representatives and 35 of 100 Senate seats will be on the ballot, and Republicans currently control both chambers of Congress. Control of Congress will shape whether Trump’s agenda advances, how forcefully a Democratic majority might engage the White House through oversight, and how secure Israel’s position in Washington remains.‘Israel’s war’ and MAGA dissentIn the days leading up to Saturday’s initial strikes, influential right-wing journalist Tucker Carlson, a leading critic of Israel’s influence over the US government, repeatedly warned against military escalation.On his Thursday programme, broadcast to tens of millions of social media followers, Carlson argued that Israel was pushing the US into conflict to secure absolute hegemony in the Middle East.On Monday evening, Carlson commented on the war’s opening phase, doubling down on his pre-war analysis, calling the war “Israel’s war” and arguing that it only “happened because Israel wanted it to happen”.Other prominent conservatives have criticised the war. Former Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene posted on X that the strikes were “murdering [Iranian] children” and contrary to an “America First” agenda.Conservative commentator Candace Owens has made more than a dozen posts arguing that Israel goaded the US into battle.The views of Carlson, Greene and Owens matter. The three have tens of millions of social media followers between them and represent influential voices inside the MAGA movement. Their criticisms signal a widening split over the Republican policy programme.Megyn Kelly, Matt Walsh and the Hodge Twins, among other influential MAGA figures, have also condemned the war as a betrayal of “America First” principles.One undercurrent in recent conservative criticism is the assertion that Trump’s decision to go to war contradicts core MAGA principles. To make this point, commentators on the right have resurrected old statements and social media posts by Trump administration figures, including Trump, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Vice President JD Vance and Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, among others.For example, as president-elect in 2016, Trump said that under his leadership, the US would “stop racing to topple … foreign regimes”. Also, in numerous 2012 and 2013 tweets, Trump suggested that then-President Barack Obama would attack Iran to either distract from domestic problems, shore up his re-election bid or compensate for sagging poll numbers.In 2023, Vance lamented the US invasion of Iraq as a “disaster” and said US “foreign policy is still held hostage by men… [who] will support the next war, and then the next one, until [the] country is hollowed out.” In 2024, Vance condemned the idea of war with Iran.In both 2016 and 2020, Gabbard railed against “warmongers”. In a 2020 interview, Gabbard said an “all-out war with Iran would make the wars that we’ve seen in Iraq and Afghanistan look like a picnic.”By surfacing these archival statements, critics are arguing not just that the war with Iran is wrong, but that it violates the ideological commitments upon which the MAGA coalition was built.A fractured partyEven before the Iran war, Republicans were more divided than at any point in recent memory. For the better part of two years, Carlson, Owens, Greene and a host of others have criticised Republican policy towards Israel and the Palestinians. The decision to go to war with Iran, ostensibly on behalf of Israel, has further amplified the divide.Some conservatives, including influential white nationalist Nick Fuentes, are so angry that they have suggested voting for Democrats rather than Republicans in the midterm elections.If these calls gain traction, Republican prospects in the midterms could be jeopardised.Recent polling suggests Republicans have reason to be concerned.A Reuters news agency poll conducted after the start of military operations suggests that only about a quarter of Americans approve of Trump’s decision to go to war. More concerning for Trump, perhaps, is that only 55 percent of Republicans approve. This is a remarkably low figure, especially in comparison with the more than 90 percent Republican support that George W Bush had for his invasion of Iraq in March 2003.All of this is significant because midterm elections have historically served as referendums on the sitting president and his party. All members of the House face voters every two years, and the president’s party almost always loses seats in midterm cycles, especially when a president’s approval rating is below 50 percent. Trump, whose approval rating has hovered between 36 percent and 38 percent, recently became the first president ever with a sub-50 percent approval rating in both his first term and during the first year of his second term.Even before the war with Iran, early electoral barometers favoured Democrats. In 2025, Democratic candidates racked up a series of victories, sweeping gubernatorial races and winning local contests in diverse areas, providing key midterm momentum.A shifting political landscapeIran may prove to be the latest battlefield in a broader transformation of US public opinion about Israel.For decades, Americans have sympathised much more with Israelis than Palestinians – on average, between 2001 and 2018, Israelis held a 43 percent advantage in Gallup polling.Last week, however, a Gallup poll suggested – for the first time in its history – that American sympathies lie more with Palestinians than Israelis.Importantly, the shift has been driven largely by changes in Republican sympathies. Since 2024, support for Israel has declined by 10 percent among Republicans.This is crucial because Republican voters have long formed the backbone of Israel’s support in the US. If Republican support weakens, Israel’s unique protection in US politics could weaken along with it.When the dust settles on the war with Iran, many Americans may come to see the conflict through the same lens as Carlson, Owens, Greene and others – as a war waged on Israel’s behalf.If the war is long and costly, as Trump indicated on Monday that it might be, that perception will harden.The 2026 midterms, then, may not only serve as a referendum on Trump and Republicans, but also on the “special relationship” that the US has with Israel.Trump has called himself “the best friend to Israel … they’ve ever had”. He may believe he is helping an old friend, but a war pursued to achieve Israel’s absolute regional hegemony could, paradoxically, weaken its most important source of strength: US backing.