Amid the ongoing conflict with
Iran, analysts say the Trump administration should pressure
Lebanon to fulfill its commitments to disarm the
Iran-backed terrorist group as it drags the country into another war with
Israel.
David Schenker, a former U.S. assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern Affairs who oversaw
Lebanon's policy during the first Trump administration and now directs the Program on Arab Politics at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said: "The U.S. should make clear to
Lebanon that it is time for the state to honor its ceasefire commitment to disarm
Hezbollah," he told Fox News Digital. Schenker warned if Beirut "doesn’t pursue disarmament, it will remain a failed state." The warning comes as the
IDF attacked multiple
Hezbollah targets Friday in response to the terror group's launching of rockets and drones toward
Israel on March 2, its first attack since a November 2024 ceasefire ended the previous round of fighting.
Iran SMUGGLED $1B TO
Hezbollah THIS YEAR DESPITE US SANCTIONS, TREASURY OFFICIAL SAYS Since the first day of the renewed fighting, the
IDF has carried out over 200 strikes across
Lebanon targeting
Hezbollah’s military, media and financial infrastructure, as well as operatives from the group and affiliated networks, according to a March 5 analysis by the Foundation for Defense of Democracies’ Long War Journal. Israeli Defense Minister
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Israel Katz also threatened
Hezbollah Secretary-General
Naim Qassem. The renewed fighting has exposed deep tensions inside
Lebanon’s government, which in recent days called on
Hezbollah to disarm and ordered security agencies to prevent attacks on
Israel from Lebanese territory.
Iran COULD ‘ACTIVATE’
Hezbollah IF US TARGETS REGIME, TRUMP’S INNER CIRCLE TO DECIDE: EXPERT Schenker says the move reflects frustration in Beirut rather than a fundamental policy shift. "The Government of
Lebanon’s latest cabinet vote on
Hezbollah disarmament is nothing new," Schenker said. "It is a reiteration of the cabinet decision last August mandating the disarmament of
Hezbollah. The language is perhaps more strident, but the message is the same." "It is a reflection of the Government’s frustration and desperation over
Hezbollah dragging
Lebanon into yet another war with
Israel ," he added. "It also reflects the
Lebanese Armed Forces’ failure to date to take its mission of disarmament seriously."
Hezbollah’s latest attacks appear to have caught Lebanese officials off guard. Reports suggest the group had previously assured officials it would not intervene in a broader regional conflict tied to
Iran. Schenker said the episode underscores a longstanding reality in
Lebanon’s political system. "The government of
Lebanon has never tried to control
Hezbollah," he said. "The few months that the LAF devoted to disarmament in south
Lebanon was performed with
Hezbollah’s consent and coordinated with the militia." Still, public frustration inside
Lebanon may be shifting the political environment. "Given the population’s growing anger toward
Hezbollah now, the political environment should be more conducive for the LAF to confront
Hezbollah," Schenker said. ON MADURO’S ‘TERROR ISLAND,’
Hezbollah OPERATIVES MOVE IN AS TOURISTS DRIFT OUT "The fear of ‘civil war’—i.e.,
Hezbollah perpetrating violence against the Government—remains," he added. "But increasingly, Lebanese prefer taking that risk and possibly gaining sovereignty than being in a state of perpetual war with
Israel." In a clip posted on X by the Center for Peace Communications, Lebanese people angrily responded to
Hezbollah's actions with one man telling Jusoor News: "If
Hezbollah leader
Naim Qassem wants to commit suicide, let him go do it in Tehran, not
Lebanon." According to David Daoud, senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies,
Hezbollah’s decision to attack
Israel despite the ceasefire reflects the group’s willingness to escalate the conflict even as
Lebanon’s government seeks to avoid another war. The crisis has also drawn international attention. French President Emmanuel Macron called for urgent steps to prevent
Lebanon from sliding deeper into war. "Everything must be done to prevent this country, so close to France, from once again being drawn into war," Macron wrote in a statement posted on X on March 5 after speaking with
Donald Trump , Benjamin Netanyahu and Lebanese leaders. Macron said
Hezbollah "must immediately cease its fire toward
Israel," while urging
Israel to avoid expanding military operations inside
Lebanon. For now, analysts say the outcome may depend on whether
Lebanon’s government is willing to confront
Hezbollah directly or continue to tolerate
Iran's terror proxy that has long operated outside the control of the government's control.