Chinese fishing 'militia' formations signal rising gray-zone pressure on Taiwan

KAOHSIUNG, Taiwan: Last Christmas Eve, satellite tracking and ship-transponder data revealed an unusual maritime event in the China-sea" class="entity-link entity-location" data-entity-id="19685" data-entity-type="location">East China Sea: thousands of Chinese fishing vessels gathered into tight, linear formations and holding position for extended periods. It happened again two weeks later. Analysts from a geospatial analytical firm were the first to identify two large stationary formations involving roughly 1,400 and 2,000 fishing vessels. Cargo ships in the area were forced to reroute or carefully thread between thousands of stationary vessels that had ceased normal fishing activity. This flotilla behavior by Chinese fishing boats, analysts believe, was a "gray zone" exercise. "There have been proposals by defense experts in the United States that the U.S. Navy should treat China’s maritime militia as a real naval force," Holmes Liao, a defense expert who is currently a senior advisor for the Taiwan Space Agency (TASA), told Fox News Digital. China LAUNCHES LARGEST MILITARY DRILLS OFF Taiwan IN 8 MONTHS WITH LIVE-FIRE EXERCISES CAUGHT ON CAMERA "I think Taiwan may need to adhere to that mentality and mindset," said Liao. "If these Chinese vessels are operating under clear military direction, then their status under the law of armed conflict could be subject to reassessment, potentially affecting claims of civilian immunity." Liao said that Taiwan should consider deploying surveillance drones or air patrols over maritime militia formations to demonstrate presence and reinforce deterrence. "Taiwan has so far been very timid in response to PRC aggression," said Liao. "They may be fishing boats, but they are actually under the PLA’s command… part of the maritime militia." Indeed, several editions of the U.S. Department of Defense’s annual "Military and Security Developments involving the People's Republic of China," describe the People’s Armed Forces Maritime Militia (PAFMM) as a "state-organized, trained, and equipped" force that actively supports China’s navy and coast guard. Analysts at the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative have previously documented swarms of dozens or even hundreds of Chinese vessels in the China-sea" class="entity-link entity-location" data-entity-id="8346" data-entity-type="location">South China Sea near contested reefs, often remaining stationary for long periods. But the incidents late last year and early this year highlight how the scale of this fishing militia appears to be expanding. Fishing vessels are inexpensive, numerous and legally ambiguous. When deployed in mass, they complicate navigation, create radar clutter and raise operational risks for commercial shipping. The civilian status of these boats also conveniently allows Beijing to frame any incidents as "rogue actions not sanctioned by authorities," or as accidents. BIPARTISAN HOUSE China PANEL SLAMS BEIJING’S Taiwan DRILLS AS ‘DELIBERATE ESCALATION’ The United States frequently cites freedom of navigation as the reason for navy patrols in the Indo-Pacific, with a U.S. State Department fact sheet noting that the region "accounts for 60% of global GDP." The area around Taiwan is already treated by maritime insurers and shipping firms as a "higher-risk environment," meaning even temporary flotilla formations could influence shipping decisions and significantly affect both regional and global economies . Taipei-based security analyst Sasha Chhabra, however, warned of the risks China would face should it deploy civilian fishing vessels in an active conflict. "A U.S. Navy convoy could easily break through these lines, and the large commercial vessels that carry Taiwan’s much-needed imports would easily splinter most fishing vessels in a ramming incident." He noted that there is precedent for Beijing using Chinese fisherman as "live bait" during a conflict. "In 1973, China used civilian fishing vessels to bait the South Vietnamese Navy into conflict and seize full control over the Paracels (islands)," said Chhabra. "But what worked against teetering South Vietnam in 1973 won’t work against the U.S. Navy." However, for independently ruled Taiwan, the concern could be cumulative pressure rather than a single dramatic incident. Encounters between Taiwanese patrol vessels and Chinese fishing boats have grown more frequent around outlying islands and in parts of the Taiwan Strait, with vessels sometimes operating in coordinated groups that shadow or crowd Taiwanese ships. The maritime militia could also be used as a tool to discourage the global shipping industry from doing business with Taiwan. Taiwan’s major ports are the energy and industrial lifelines for this de facto independent state. The port of Kaohsiung in the south, for example, handles large volumes of LNG imports and petrochemical shipments. Even partial disruption or perceived instability in surrounding sea lanes could ripple through supply chains and sharply raise costs for the global economy. Jason Wang, CEO of ingeniSPACE, the company that revealed the fishing fleets on their satellite systems, told Fox News Digital that despite Taiwan’s semiconductor advantage, China is winning in space. Wang said data fusion and satellite-based maritime awareness are now strategic necessities. "Intelligence is deterrence without provocation. Intelligence ensures efficient targeted spending and is a force multiplier by shaping a more effective military force," he said. "Taiwan, like all First Island Chain nations, must be prepared for a new kind of warfare." Wang and other experts note that countries like Japan and South Korea have, for roughly a decade, aggressively augmented their satellite spy constellations with commercial satellites to "ensure sufficient coverage and revisit rates so that their leadership has the capability to distinguish both overt military and gray zone activity." Analysts say the broader lesson is that sea control no longer depends solely on destroyers and submarines. In the immediate future, the most consequential maritime pressure may come not from warships, but from vessels that look, at first glance, entirely harmless.