Pro-EU liberals see narrow win in Slovenia as key Italian referendum enters final hours – Europe live

From 1h agoResults too close to call, but 'No' win would mark big set back for Meloni - snap analysisJakub KrupaThese numbers are very close – too close for comfort for either side or to call it just yet.But all three main polls show the ‘No’ campaign – against the proposed changes to the constitution – in the lead in what, if confirmed, would be a big set back for Italy’s Giorgia Meloni.Key events1m agoReferendum loss leaves Meloni more politically vulnerable4m agoSky TG24 broadcaster calls the referendum for No campaign8m ago'No' campaign's lead extends to 7.8pp, new Rai projection show26m ago'No' lead widens according to Rai projection with first partial results50m agoExit polls suggest Meloni narrowly lost contentious referendum — snap analysis1h agoEarly data show 58% turnout in Italian referendum1h agoResults too close to call, but 'No' win would mark big set back for Meloni - snap analysis1h ago'No' campaign ahead in LA7 poll1h ago‘No’ campaign also leads in Rai instant poll1h ago'No' campaign with narrow lead in instant poll for Sky TG241h agoPolls on Italian referendum expected imminently2h agoWhat is the Italian referendum about?2h agoItalian referendum result will be important for domestic politics - analysis3h agoOrbán orders probe into 'wiretapping' of his foreign minister amid claims of Russia links3h agoHigh turnout in Italian referendum creates nail-biting situation for Meloni - snap analysis4h agoEU asks for 'clarification' from Hungary on alleged leaks of leaders' discussions to Russia4h agoPoland's president Nawrocki expected in Budapest amid controversy over Hungary-Russia links5h agoTrump lauds Viktor Orbán as Europe’s far-right leaders gather in Budapest5h agoFormer French prime minister Lionel Jospin dies at 886h ago'Match ends when referee blows whistle,' Italian foreign minister says in call to vote6h ago'Participation is important,' Meloni tells Italians ahead of final hours of judiciary reform referendum6h agoMorning opening: Big election weekendShow key events onlyPlease turn on JavaScript to use this featureReferendum loss leaves Meloni more politically vulnerableWhile Giorgia Meloni has firmly ruled out resigning over the result, avoiding the fate of former premier Matteo Renzi, whose tenure ended abruptly after a failed 2016 constitutional referendum, a loss will nonetheless leave her vulnerable, analysts told Reuters.A person prepares the counting of the ballot boxes of the Constitutional referendum on Justice reform, in a polling station of Rome, Italy. Photograph: Filippo Monteforte/AFP/Getty ImagesThe timing of the contest proved challenging for Meloni, with Italians harbouring a clear dislike of her ally, US president Donald Trump, and fearful that the US-Israeli war on Iran will drive up already high domestic power prices, the agency said.Victory in the referendum would have likely emboldened the prime minister to press ahead with other significant constitutional changes, such as making the post of prime minister directly elected, Reuters noted.The likely rejection by voters leaves her weakened domestically as she grapples with a stagnant economy and complex international headwinds. It could also weaken her standing in Europe, where previously she was seen as unexpectedly resilient and enduring.Sky TG24 broadcaster calls the referendum for No campaignAnd as we are getting more partial results, the Sky TG24 broadcaster has just called the vote for “No.”You can follow the official results here as they come in.'No' campaign's lead extends to 7.8pp, new Rai projection showRai’s second projection – updated with votes from 37% polling stations – suggests the gap widens even further with No campaign now projected to get 53.9%, and Yes at just 46.1%.'No' lead widens according to Rai projection with first partial resultsTaking actual results from the first 12% of the polling stations that reported first, Rai is now projecting the final result to be 46.9% for yes, and 53.1% for no.But, but, but these numbers will obviously change as we get more actual results, and it’s still very early days.Exit polls suggest Meloni narrowly lost contentious referendum — snap analysisAngela Giuffridain RomeExit polls on Monday appeared to suggest Italy’s prime minister has narrowly lost a contentious referendum on judicial reform.Italian premier Giorgia Meloni casts her ballot in a referendum on judicial reform, in Rome, Italy. Photograph: Valentina Stefanelli/APThe pollsters said the No camp, supported by a significant proportion of the Italian opposition, had gained between 49% and 53% of the vote compared to 47% to 51% for the government-based Yes camp. Turnout in the two-day referendum reached a record-breaking 58.5%, according to data from the Italian interior ministry, contradicting pre-ballot forecasts that turnout would be low. Defeat would be a blow to Meloni, who was hoping to press ahead with an electoral law that could give her coalition a comfortable win in next year’s general election.The nature of the proposed judicial reforms was technical and complex, with the referendum campaign mostly filled with inflammatory rhetoric towards the judiciary.Early data show 58% turnout in Italian referendumEarly turnout data suggest 58.4% of the electorate voted in the referendum.Results too close to call, but 'No' win would mark big set back for Meloni - snap analysisJakub KrupaThese numbers are very close – too close for comfort for either side or to call it just yet.But all three main polls show the ‘No’ campaign – against the proposed changes to the constitution – in the lead in what, if confirmed, would be a big set back for Italy’s Giorgia Meloni.'No' campaign ahead in LA7 pollSWG poll for La7 broadcaster has the same numbers.Yes 47-51%NO 49-53%‘No’ campaign also leads in Rai instant pollYes 47-51%NO 49-53%Consortio Opinio Italia poll for Italian public broadcaster Rai'No' campaign with narrow lead in instant poll for Sky TG24Yes 48.5%NO 51.5%2.2% margin errorYoutrend poll for SkyPolls on Italian referendum expected imminentlyIn the words of a certain popular Italian journalist: “Here – we – go!”I will bring you the numbers as soon as we have them.A voter casts her ballot at a polling station in Rome, Italy. Photograph: Anadolu/Getty ImagesAccording to Italian media, we are expecting as many as three polls: Opinio for Rai, Swg for La7, and Youtrend for Sky.Three minutes to go.What is the Italian referendum about?Angela Giuffridain RomeHere’s a quick reminder of what’s at stake at today’s referendum.A victory for the yes campaign would usher in changes to how judges and prosecutors are recruited and governed, including separating their career paths, establishing two governing councils selected by lottery and creating a court to handle disciplinary matters.Voters cast their ballots in the Italian judiciary reform referendum. Photograph: Alberto Lo Bianco/Lapresse/ShutterstockMeloni says the changes are essential for impartiality, in particular to weed out what she calls the leftwing political “factions” ruling the judiciary.Opponents claim they will weaken the power and independence of judges and prosecutors, making them more vulnerable to government control in a manner akin to Viktor Orbán’s Hungary.Italian referendum result will be important for domestic politics - analysisAngela Giuffridain RomeOpinion polls before the blackout period began pointed to a close race in which the no camp, supported by a significant proportion of the opposition, had gained an edge as the debate intensified.At the end of the campaign, Meloni upped her messaging by accusing judges of undermining her policies to crack down on crime and irregular immigration.Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni casts her ballot in a referendum on judicial reform in Rome, Italy. Photograph: Valentina Stefanelli/APShe said rejecting the changes would put public safety at risk because it would mean “more immigrants, rapists, paedophiles and drug dealers being freed”. Speaking at a theatre in Milan last week, she said if the ballot failed “we will find ourselves with even more negligent judges and even more surreal sentences”.Meloni is riding high in popularity surveys, which is unusual for Italian leaders this long into an administration. If the referendum goes her way, she will prioritise an electoral law that could give her coalition a comfortable win in the general election, which is due next year.Mattia Diletti, a politics professor at Sapienza University in Rome, said: “If she loses, it will be upsetting because it will be much harder for her to prepare for the elections.”In the days before the ballot, Meloni turned to an irreverent podcast hosted by a rapper in an attempt to sway younger voters. “The vote is not about Meloni, it is about justice,” she said.Matteo Bruno, a master’s student in Rome, was unconvinced. “I’m going home to Catania specifically to vote because this is a constitutional reform that might have important consequences for the future of our democracy,” he said.There is less than 90 minutes before voting closes in Italy, and we are expecting exit polls to be published around that time (2pm UK, 3pm local time).General information on polling stations open for the referendum on justice in Bologna, Italy. Photograph: Guido Calamosca/LaPresse/ShutterstockWe will keep an eye on this for you and bring you the latest here.