Three scenarios for the Strait of Hormuz
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In late March 2026, the Strait of Hormuz has become the focal point of a geopolitical crisis due to the ongoing US-Israeli war on Iran. Iran has threatened vessels, halting transit and causing a major global energy supply disruption. The article outlines three potential scenarios: unilateral regional military action by Gulf states, a joint international operation, or phased negotiations. A regional military coalition faces capability challenges and risks escalating the conflict with Iran. Pakistan's mediation efforts between Washington and Tehran could be crucial in facilitating either a joint operation or negotiations. Pakistan has cautioned against military escalation and sought to preserve diplomatic options.
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AI-ExtractedThe International Energy Agency has characterised this as the most acute supply disruption in the history of the global energy market.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has repeatedly threatened or targeted vessels, suspending transit through the strait.
Iran’s doctrine of “forward defence” implies that any military pressure on the Strait of Hormuz would likely trigger commensurate pressure on Gulf oil infrastructure.
Gulf states lack the integrated naval power projection to neutralize the layered asymmetric threat that Iran poses.
Pakistan’s mediation could play an important role in two of the scenarios.
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