Success or surrender? Iran ceasefire exposes rift in Trump’s Maga movement

Donald Trump’s acceptance of a two-week ceasefire in Iran has exposed fresh divisions in his Make America Great Again (Maga) movement, with some supporters expressing vindication and others accusing the US president of betrayal.The US and Iran both claimed victory after the two countries agreed to pause hostilities following more than a month of war. But the Strait of Hormuz remained closed on Wednesday and fighting was still taking place as Israel launched its biggest attacks yet on Lebanon.Democrats and other critics said Trump had suffered a humiliating strategic defeat given that, for all his apocalyptic bluster, Iran’s regime remains intact and still holds a stockpile of highly enriched uranium while also now exerting control of the strait.Maga loyalists raced to defend the president. Dinesh D’Souza, a rightwing commentator and film-maker, posted on social media: “Once again, Trump outsmarts the critics. Once again he exposes their inner derangement. Once again he proves he is the adult in the room. Once again.”Matt Schlapp, a lobbyist who is chairman of the American Conservative Union, insisted: “The Maga base trusts Trump – and trusts his decisions are grounded in real, actionable intelligence.”Maga members of Congress were mostly silent but Nancy Mace of South Carolina did post: “Peace through STRENGTH. President Trump has shown the world yet again what this looks like. Its time to end the conflict for good and bring our troops home.”Other voices sounded defensive as they sought to push back against the torrent of criticism that Trump’s war had achieved nothing except inadvertently strengthening Iran’s hand.Alex Bruesewitz, a political consultant and adviser to Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign, posted: “‘American capitulation’? How ridiculous. President Trump dismantled the Iranian regime, destroyed the vast majority of their military capabilities, and is now working toward a tremendous deal for the United States.”Jack Posobiec, a political activist and conspiracy theorist, told Steve Bannon’s War Room podcast: “A lot of these people who are saying Iran did so well, they overperformed – you gotta look at the scoreboard. The scoreboard does not show that Iran was able to fight off the Americans.”He added: “Are they toothless? No. But they are not some kind of monster that’s about to take over the Middle East … The president is working to create a ‘new normal’ for the Middle East.”Some sought to discourage Trump from making too many concessions. Lindsey Graham, arguably the most pro-war Republican in the Senate, expressed faith in the president but admitted that the “supposed negotiating document, in my view, has some troubling aspects”.Rejecting the notion that Tehran should be allowed to “save face” by maintaining a small uranium enrichment programme, Graham added: “I’m not remotely interested in providing face-saving cover to a regime that murders its own people, beats a 16-year-old girl to death for not wearing a headscarf appropriately, and is dripping in American blood.”Others struck a note of caution and deployed a familiar defence: that Trump might be receiving the wrong advice.Mark Levin, a Fox News host who was an ardent war hawk, told the network’s viewers: “I trust President Trump. I know his heart. I know he wants to do the right thing. I know that he has people telling him to do something else, and other advisers telling him something different, but he’s the most understanding and competent of the bunch. And he’s the president of the United States, and his instincts are very, very good.“But I would say this: this enemy is still the enemy. They’re still surviving. Their military may be destroyed, but the communist Chinese will still help them, and the Russians will still help them rebuild. So this thing’s not over. And it’s not that I’m a warmonger – it’s that they’re the warmongers. It’s not that I’m an interventionist – it’s that they’re the interventionists.”Elsewhere on Fox News there was a dawning realisation that Trump might have been outsmarted and outplayed given the persistence of Iran’s nuclear facilities, refusal to accept inspectors and continued ballistic missile programme.Lawrence Jones, a co-host of the Fox & Friends show, said: “I will say, the president’s demands – we have not reached any of those objectives. I have full confidence that the president is going to find some way to make this happen.“The question is: is the president using this two weeks to give our soldiers a break, a rest, to see if we can get this ultimately done? We’ll see.”Some Maga voices were more sharply critical. Matthew Feinberg, an author and self-described “Maga Jew”, posted on X: “A ceasefire that leaves the IRGC [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps] in power isn’t peace. It’s permission. Permission to regroup. Permission to rearm. Permission to do it all over again. That’s not a win. That’s a delay.”Even Laura Loomer, an activist and self-proclaimed Islamophobe who has been an ardent defender of Trump during the war, expressed dismay at the outcome.She wrote on X: “The negotiation is a negative for our country. We didn’t really get anything out of it and the terrorists in Iran are celebrating. I don’t know why people are acting like this is a win.”The Maga movement has been shaken by Trump’s expansionist foreign policy during his second term. Opinion polls suggest most rank-and-file voters continue to back him. But some high-profile podcasters and “manosphere” influencers have denounced him for abandoning an “America First” commitment to ending military commitments overseas.A Pew Research survey in late March found that, among Republicans, there had been an 18-point decline in confidence in Trump’s policymaking about Iran since 2024. Even so, Republicans aged 65 and older are overwhelmingly confident (80%) in Trump’s ability to make good decisions on Iran this year.