Why China’s green energy strategy may shield it from the Iran war oil shock

China’s green energy transition is expanding from a domestic security priority into a potent geopolitical asset at a time of heightened global uncertainty, according to the latest official reading of the country’s 15th five-year plan.That shift has been tested in recent weeks by the US-Israeli war in Iran and Tehran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz – a chokepoint for 20 per cent of global oil and gas supplies. While Tehran signalled it would reopen the strait on Tuesday under a fragile two-week ceasefire agreement with the United States, shipping activity remains far below normal levels.Amid the disruption, some governments worldwide have scrambled to roll out emergency measures to conserve energy. China’s long-standing strategy of diversification and self-reliance, meanwhile, has emerged as a structural buffer against such shocks.The country’s energy self-sufficiency rate has held steady at above 80 per cent, according to a recent book published by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) on the 15th five-year plan, Beijing’s top socio-economic blueprint released last month.The publication said building a “new-type energy system” was essential to transforming China into an “energy powerhouse” and was a “fundamental necessity for seizing the strategic initiative in global competition”.It cautioned that escalating geopolitical conflicts were reshaping the global energy landscape and trade order – as seen in the Russia-Ukraine war, conflict in the Middle East and Washington’s recent military intervention in Venezuela.“Competition over control of resources, transit corridors and market access is intensifying”, the publication warned, adding that “increased uncertainty” facing China’s energy imports called for stricter risk prevention and control measures.