Trump's blockade threat raises risks and leaves predicaments unchanged

Will mine-clearing activities place American naval vessels at greater risk of Iranian attacks? How would the US determine who paid Iran a toll? Will the US use force on foreign-flagged ships that ignore the blockade? How will nations that depend on Iranian oil, like China, respond? Will the move, intended to choke off Iran's primary income stream, drive up the price of oil to even higher levels?There are no clear answers."I don't understand how blockading the strait is going to somehow push the Iranians into opening it," Senator Mark Warner of Virginia, the ranking Democrat on the Senate Intelligence Committee, told CNN on Sunday.On CBS' Face the Nation programme, Republican congressman Mike Turner of Ohio, who until last year chaired the House Intelligence Committee, said the blockade is a means to force a resolution to the situation in Hormuz."The president, by saying we're not just going to let them decide who gets through, is certainly calling all of our allies and everyone to the table," he said. "This needs to be addressed."Last week, before Iran and the US agreed to a two-week ceasefire and face-to-face negotiations, Trump had found himself in a difficult situation.He could continue to ratchet up the US attacks on Iran, possibly doing long-term damage to the nation's civilian infrastructure, adding to a humanitarian crisis and further destablising the global economy. Or, he could back away from a war that has always been unpopular among the American public and is beginning to frustrate even some of Trump's supporters, who believed his promises to avoid extended foreign conflicts and Middle East entanglements.A new CBS poll suggests that most Americans (59%) feel the war is going somewhat or very badly for the US.Many believe the key US objectives - such as keeping open the Strait of Hormuz, securing greater freedom for the Iranian people, and permanently ending Iran's nuclear programme - remain unmet. Overwhelming bipartisan majorities feel it's important for the US to achieve these goals.Nearly a week has passed and, despite American claims of victory, the predicaments facing the president have not changed.Talking to Fox News on Sunday morning, Trump said that Iran would ultimately give the US "everything" it wants. He added that while oil prices might be the same or higher in the months ahead, he believed the US economy would hold up.That, to say the least, is a gamble. And with November's midterm elections looming, the president's Republican Party could pay dearly at the polls if he is wrong.On Saturday night, as his vice-president was negotiating with the Iranians in Pakistan, Trump travelled to Miami, where he watched prize fighters batter each other in UFC cage matches.