‘The perception is Carney is a wartime leader’: why Canada’s PM could secure a majority

Canada’s prime minister, Mark Carney, is on the brink of securing a majority government, with his Liberal Party poised to win at least two closely watched byelections and courting an “almost unprecedented” string of defections from rival parties.Carney’s ability to turn a strong minority into a narrow majority through electoral gains and floor crossing has strengthened his reputation as a pragmatic leader above the cut and thrust of partisan politics. But his efforts to bring in lawmakers from across the political spectrum has also sparked a fierce internal debate over the Liberals’ values and the risks of consolidating more power.On Monday evening, the results of three byelections are likely to give the Liberals command of parliament. Of the three races, two are in safe districts for the party and the third is expected to be fought on the narrowest of margins.The elections follow a string of floor crossings in recent months. Last week Marilyn Gladu, a Conservative, became the fourth Tory to abandon the party and join the Liberals.Prime minister Mark Carney with MP for Sarnia-Lambton-Bkejwanong Marilyn Gladu in Ottawa on Wednesday. Photograph: Adrian Wyld/APLori Idlout, a Nunavut MP from the leftwing New Democratic Party, has also joined Carney’s team. Meanwhile, the deputy leader of Ontario’s NDP will run as a Liberal in a byelection in Toronto, a seat she is expected to win easily.Scott Reid, a political adviser and former director of communications to the former Liberal prime minister Paul Martin, said: “Pulling people from such diverse political origins at a time when the prime minister is vulnerable while leading a minority parliament is almost unprecedented. At minimum, it’s really unique and worthy of real reflection. What the hell is going on?”Reid believes the disruptive force of Donald Trump continues to have an effect on Canada – both through his threats to annex the country and his multi-pronged attacks on Canada’s economy. This sustained and bitter fight with a longtime ally has led certain Canadian politicians distance themselves from partisanship and embrace a nationalist approach to the fight.“Trump gave rise to Carney and his unique talents,” Reid said. “Now, we’re watching another effect of Trump on our politics: a desire for stability. The perception is Carney is a wartime leader. And in so many respects, what we’re watching is the quietest assembly of a union government we’ve ever witnessed.”As with each of the floor crossings, Conservatives criticised the move and their former colleagues. “Mark Carney seizing a costly Liberal majority that voters denied him, and doing so through backroom deals,” the Conservative leader, Pierre Poilievre, posted on social media, citing Gladu’s own words in January that “floor crossers should face voters in a byelection to give voters the final say”. “I couldn’t agree more,” he said. “She should do so.”The loss of a social Conservative such as Gladu is a blow to Poilievre, who is facing mounting discontent within his party despite handily winning his recent leadership review. More Conservatives are rumoured to be considering a move to the Liberals.Reid sees all this as a serious threat to Poilievre. “If you had said to me two years ago that Pierre Poilievre is going to lose a federal election despite having a 25-point lead, lose his home riding that he’s held for years – and then he’s going to lose four members of parliament and surrender the parliamentary majority to his chief rival? Well, you’ve just described a political dead person,” he said.But Gladu’s decision to join the Liberals has provoked tension within the party over how big a tent they want to create – and the ideological costs of consolidating power. Gladu supported the “freedom convoy” during the coronavirus crisis and holds openly anti-abortion views that clash sharply with Liberal dogma. Under the former prime minister Justin Trudeau, Liberal candidates were required to be pro-choice when it came to abortion rights.Supriya Dwivedi, a columnist and former adviser to Justin Trudeau, posted on X: “Guys, maybe we should all re-read Values [Carney’s 2021 book]. It’s possible we all missed the part where Carney said we don’t need to actually have any.”Speaking to reporters on Thursday, Carney said Gladu was committed to voting with the government on issues surrounding a woman’s right to choose.“There’s no change in the Liberal Party’s values, let’s be clear on that,” he said, adding that she wanted to join his party to help the country at a crucial time. “We are fortunate that [MPs have defected] because they bring expertise, they bring perspectives, they bring energy and they help us work together.”Gladu herself later said she had been consistent in a belief that “women need to have the right to choose”. She said: “I obviously have my long faith traditions, but I’m ready to support the rights of women in this country. I will vote with the government. I will protect the rights and freedoms of women to choose, for people to be who they are and love who they love.”Jordan Leichnitz, a former senior strategist with the leftwing New Democratic Party, said questions over a possible clash in values within the Liberals made sense when they were viewed as a “pure power broker party”.She said: “Historically and currently, the ability to form and hold government is the primary thing that unites people on the Liberal benches. Ideology has always been secondary to that. But Carney is a compelling figure in this trade war with Trump and a lot of people want to be part of that fight.”Polling suggests that Carney has increased his lead over his political rivals since the federal election in April 2025 and that if he were to call a snap election, the Liberals would be on track for a historic parliamentary majority.But Leichnitz cautioned there were limits to attempting to fully capitalise on the party’s mounting success.“What’s the magic of Mark Carney? He’s not a politician. And the minute you call an election just to get a majority, you’ve lost that,” she said. “And he faces a similar risk with more floor crossers: when you start accepting people who clearly violate your party’s stated position on abortion, for example, then it starts to look a little bit like your values are flexible in pursuit of power – which is a political move.“The danger for the prime minister is that nakedly political moves risk his brand’s greatest strength.”