The US blockade of Iran is a gamble. Will it work?

There's no doubt the US military has the capability to mount a blockade of vessels moving in and out of the Gulf. The question is: to what end?"I do think it's doable," retired US Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery told the BBC this morning. "And it's certainly less risky than the alternative, which would have been to forcibly push back the Iranians and create the conditions for a convoy."Some of the options floated by President Trump in recent weeks – the seizure of Kharg Island or militarily escorting convoys through the Strait of Hormuz – would have proved hazardous and potentially costly.US forces involved would have exposed themselves to attack from Iranian missiles, drones and fast boats. The possible presence of mines in the water would have added another layer of danger.By contrast, a blockade allows US warships to loiter safely, far offshore in the waters of the Gulf-of-oman" class="entity-link entity-location" data-entity-id="2457" data-entity-type="location">Gulf of Oman, track vessels emerging from Iranian ports and interdict them at will."There's less risk in this than there is in the very confined area of the Strait," Admiral Montgomery said.With special forces, helicopters and its own fast boats all available, the US navy has all the assets it needs for such an operation.Recent blockades of Venezuela and Cuba have demonstrated the capability. In early January, the seizure of the Russian oil tanker, the Marinera, far out in the northern Atlantic, showed that such operations can be carried out almost anywhere.