Republican Matt Van Epps wins US House special election in Tennessee

Republican Matt Van Epps defeated Democrat Aftyn Behn in a congressional special election in the western Nashville suburbs, which was being closely watched for signs of Republican weakness going into congressional midterms next year.The Associated Press called the race at 9.47 EST with Van Epps holding a 52% to 46% lead.“This race was bigger than just one campaign,” Van Epps said in a statement. “It represented a defining moment for Tennessee and for the direction of the country.”Van Epps argued that his victory served as a sign that conservative voters remained supportive of Donald Trump’s leadership. Trump campaigned virtually on Van Epps’s behalf in the closing days of the race.“Running from Trump is how you lose. Running with Trump is how you win,” Van Epps said. “Our victory was powered by a movement of Tennesseans that are ready for change. We are grateful to the President for his unwavering support that charted this movement and catapulted us to victory. President Trump was all-in with us. That made the difference. In Congress, I’ll be all-in with him.”Tennessee’s seventh congressional district is normally reliable Republican territory. Donald Trump carried the district by 15 points in 2020 and 22 points in 2024. But special elections can be unpredictable, and polling placed Behn within a few points of Van Epps in recent days.Richard Hudson, National Republican Congressional Committee chair, congratulated Van Epps in a statement, saying:“No one is better positioned to take up the mantle and deliver results for Tennessee families, workers, and small business owners.”A six-point margin of victory represents a significant change in Republican support.“Aftyn Behn’s overperformance in this Trump +22 district is historic and a flashing warning sign for Republicans heading into the midterms,” said Democratic National Committee chairman Ken Martin in a statement.“Aftyn centered her campaign on lowering grocery, housing, and health care costs for Tennessee families. Her Republican opponent ran his campaign focused on Donald Trump, and he had to get bailed out by a massive Republican spending onslaught to barely hold this traditionally safe Republican seat.”Cook’s Political Report describes this district as “leans Republican,” a downgrade from reliably Republican despite Trump’s performance. “Democrats’ inherent edge in special elections this year will make this race closer than it should be,” they wrote.Van Epps and Behn were vying to replace Republican congressman Mark Green, who resigned in July – after passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act – to launch a firm to compete with Chinese business interests in Guyana. House Republicans have a 219-213 advantage in the chamber.Van Epps, a former army helicopter pilot and West Point graduate, defeated nine other Republican candidates, benefiting from endorsements from Trump, Green and Tennessee’s Republican governor Bill Lee. Van Epps ran the Tennessee department of general services under Lee.Behn, who has represented an east Nashville district in the Tennessee house since 2023, won a closely contested four-way Democratic primary. A former political organizer and progressive activist, Behn worked in social services and community advocacy.After Democrats unexpectedly swept elections earlier this month in Virginia, New Jersey and elsewhere, the party Democratic-aligned groups poured money into Behn’s campaign with the goal of an upset.A national Democratic strategist who works on House races told the Guardian last week that Republicans are spending an unusually large amount of money in the district “in a desperate last-minute attempt to avoid a Democratic overperformance”.Dave Wasserman, senior editor and elections analyst at the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, told the Guardian last week: “We still expect that the Republican will prevail, but would not be surprised if it were a single-digit race.”The district, which stretches from Kentucky to Alabama, is largely rural, but also includes part of blue-leaning Nashville, as well as the city of Clarksville.Chris Stein contributed reporting