‘He talks too much’: how Trump’s erratic commentary is the real block to an Iran deal

Donald Trump’s blend of threats and hubristic commentary, often casually dismissive of Iran, has, as much as the continuation of the US naval blockade of Iranian ports, been a key stumbling block to restarting peace talks between the two countries under Pakistan’s mediation in Islamabad.However much the Iranian foreign ministry insists it will not respond to every social media utterance issued by the US president on Iran, and sometimes there are as many as seven a day, Tehran cannot ignore them all, even if they contradict what the Iranians are being told in private about Trump’s true intentions.Indeed, Trump’s impatience and rough-house diplomatic style has become a self-standing impediment to a solution.Iran’s chief negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, warned that “by imposing a siege and violating the ceasefire”, the US president “seeks to turn this negotiating table – in his own imagination – into a table of surrender or to justify renewed warmongering. We do not accept negotiations under the shadow of threats, and in the past two weeks, we have prepared to reveal new cards on the battlefield.”Iran’s ambassador to Pakistan, Reza Amiri Moghadam, made a similar point with a reference to Jane Austen, saying: “It’s a truth universally acknowledged that a single country in possession of a large civilisation, will not negotiate under threat and force.”Just as Trump has to handle his querulous political base and the stock market, so the Iranian leadership has to reassure a domestic constituency by pushing back against Trump’s claims of Iranian humiliation and desperation, or his insistence that Iran has climbed down on the key issue of its stockpile of highly enriched uranium.Trump, for instance, last Friday responded to a tweet by Abbas Araghchi, the Iranian foreign minister, that Iran would lift some of the restrictions in the strait of Hormuz by effectively hailing Iran’s defeat, instead of reciprocating by lifting the US blockade, as Iran had expected.Later, in one of many phone interviews that day, Trump said: “They [Iran] want me to open it. The Iranians desperately want it opened. I’m not opening it until a deal is signed.” In another unfiltered interview, he said: “They have agreed to everything,” adding specifically: “They have agreed to never close the strait of Hormuz again.” A day later, Iran closed the strait, leaving the impression that Trump, not for the first time, underestimated Iran’s resolve.One Iranian diplomatic outpost in Ghana pointed out on Tuesday: “In the past 24 hours the president of the United States has: — Thanked Iran for closure of Hormuz; threatened Iran; blamed China; praised China; declared the blockade a success; confirmed Iran restocked through the blockade; promised a deal with Iran; promised bombs will fall on Iran.” The embassy described Trump as a one-man WhatsApp chat group.At the weekend, Iran’s deputy foreign minister, Saeed Khatibzadeh, said of Trump: “He talks too much.”By Tuesday, in a string of contradictory remarks, Trump said: “I expect to be bombing,” adding the military was raring to go, in reference to the imminent expiry of the deadline he would not be extending. Yet two sentences later, he said the Iranians would be attending the talks starting on Wednesday.Through the juxtaposition of contradictory sentiments, he simultaneously praised and buried Iran.“Iran can get themselves on a very good footing, a strong nation, a wonderful nation. They have an incredible people,” he said, before adding: “They seem to be bloodthirsty and they are led by some very unfortunately tough people and not in a nice way. We are much tougher than they are – not even close – but they have to use reason and common sense, not be a country based on death and horror.”All this may be intended to scramble Iran’s diplomatic radar, but so far the only effect has been to make the country more wary and more determined only to agree to a deal if it includes a clear irreversible enforcement mechanism that requires Trump to stick with any agreement he seals.