China isn’t Europe’s real problem

Generals losing a war examine the enemy, battlefield and their own forces. Brussels prefers a different sequence, ordering new weapons first and worrying about the diagnosis later. That instinct was on display at the recent European Council meeting.Faced with a trade deficit it cannot close and dependencies it cannot shake, the European Union agreed on a new label: “global macroeconomic imbalances”. To solve them, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen was reportedly directed to engage in dialogue with China with an emphasis on results – an admission that years of escalating pressure have produced none. Her other mandate was to develop more economic security tools. No euphemism has ever confessed “we don’t know what to do” this loudly.Europe’s China debate has become detached from any assessment of outcomes. If “de-risking”, anti-subsidy investigations, tariffs, trade defence measures, the “trade bazooka” threat and procurement restrictions have all failed to cut dependence, narrow the deficit or restore competitiveness, why should another layer of instruments succeed?