Why Japan PM’s election bet will not repair damaged bilateral ties with China

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is betting that her strong public approval ratings will translate into a decisive majority in next month’s elections, but her bid could face a challenge from surging right-wing factions and a newly formed political party.A failure to secure a majority in the parliament’s lower house would severely undermine Takaichi’s ability to steer a tougher course on China. But irrespective of the election outcome, repairing relations with China would take well beyond her term, experts said.Takaichi said on Monday that she would dissolve parliament on Friday and hold early elections on February 8 for the 465 seats in the lower house, the more powerful of the two chambers.By calling a snap election, Takaichi hopes to translate her high approval rating – currently standing at around 70 per cent – into public support for her long-dominant Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).After maintaining a near-continuous grip on power since 1955, the LDP’s current position is precarious. It lost 56 seats in the 2024 election and now holds 199, depending on an alliance with the Japan Innovation Party (JIP) to maintain a fragile legislative majority.04:47Why have Takaichi’s Taiwan comments sent China-Japan ties into a tailspin?Why have Takaichi’s Taiwan comments sent China-Japan ties into a tailspin?“Since taking office, Takaichi has gained popularity through her strong rhetoric but moving forward, she will need to deliver tangible results to sustain her support,” said Kim Baek-ju, a senior researcher specialising in East Asia at Sogang University in Seoul.