How 1,000 Chinese J-20s could challenge US dominance in the Indo-Pacific

South China Morning PostCenter-RightEN 1 min read 100% complete by Seong Hyeon ChoiJanuary 22, 2026 at 02:00 PM

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A Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) report indicates China's air power is rapidly expanding. By 2030, China could possess approximately 1,000 J-20 fifth-generation fighter jets, potentially challenging US air dominance in the Indo-Pacific region, particularly near the first island chain. The report highlights a significant increase in China's production of advanced fourth and fifth-generation fighters over the past five years. Specifically, the number of J-20s has grown from around 50 in 2020 to approximately 300 by mid-2025, while J-16 4.5-generation fighters have increased from roughly 90-100 to about 450 in the same period. This expansion is attributed to high production rates of the J-20A and J-20S variants, reaching approximately 120 aircraft per year.

Key Entities & Roles

Key Player Opposition Context

first island chain 60% PLA Air Force 70% Indo-Pacific 70% J-16 70% People's Liberation Army (PLA) 75% United States 80% Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) ×485% China ×290% J-20 ×695%

Keywords

j-20 fighter 100% air power 80% military capability 70% fifth-generation fighters 70% us dominance 60% china 60% people's liberation army air force 50% indo-pacific 50% j-16 fighter 40%

Sentiment Analysis

Negative

Score: -0.30

Source Transparency

Source

South China Morning Post

Political Lean

Center-Right (0.50)

Far LeftCenterFar Right

Classification Confidence

90%

Geographic Perspective

China

This article was automatically classified using rule-based analysis. The political bias score ranges from -1 (far left) to +1 (far right).

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j-20 fighter air power military capability fifth-generation fighters us dominance china people's liberation army air force indo-pacific j-16 fighter

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