How 1,000 Chinese J-20s could challenge US dominance in the Indo-Pacific

By 2030, China could operate about 1,000 units of the J-20 fifth-generation fighter jet, possibly challenging the US and its allies’ air power projection near the first island chain, according to a British think tank.A report this month by the London-based Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) found a “dramatic increase” in the past five years in China’s capacity to contest Western air power, citing the production of “modern and highly capable” fourth- and fifth-generation fighters.While the RUSI’s last estimate of Chinese combat air strength in 2020 suggested that the People’s Liberation Army was operating about 50 J-20 fighters at the time, its assessment in mid-2025 showed that the PLA Air Force was fielding about 300 J-20s.According to RUSI, in the past five years the number of J-16 4.5-generation fighter jets has also increased sharply from about 90-100 units in 2020 to roughly 450 by the end of 2025.“What these figures indicate, in practice, is that the proportion of fifth-generation and advanced fourth-generation fighters operated by the PLAAF has greatly increased since 2020 and will continue to do so,” it added.The report said the production rates for the upgraded and technologically mature J-20A and the twin-seat J-20S variant reached about 120 aircraft per year.