Gulf War

The United States and Israel are currently engaged in a war with Iran, a conflict that began sometime before March 2026. This war is causing significant disruption to global markets, particularly in the energy sector, with Brent crude oil prices surging to record monthly highs. The conflict is also placing a strain on Gulf economies, impacting energy exports and tourism, raising recession risks. The Trump administration is reportedly considering asking Arab nations to cover the war's costs. The war has led to environmental disasters, including 'black rain' caused by strikes on Iranian oil depots. In response to market volatility, the IEA has announced a massive release of oil reserves. Militarily, there have been losses, including a US refuelling plane crash in Iraq. The conflict is also prompting increased missile production by companies like MBDA. Some analysts suggest the US is facing another potential defeat, similar to previous engagements in Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Iraq.