The Iran war has strengthened Ukraine in surprising ways. Could a ceasefire with Russia be closer?

Following 40 days of conflict, Iran and the United States have agreed to a two-week ceasefire, with talks scheduled to begin in Pakistan. The agreement involves Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz for safe passage, a crucial waterway for global oil flow. The ceasefire was welcomed by countries in the Middle East, including Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, who expressed hope for a lasting peace. The Gulf states urged an end to attacks in the region and the full opening of the Strait of Hormuz. While Israel supports the ceasefire with Iran, it maintains that the agreement does not extend to Lebanon, despite initial reports to the contrary. The conflict had drawn in much of the Middle East, including attacks on Gulf Cooperation Council countries and involvement of Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Keir Starmer is visiting Gulf allies, including Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, to discuss reopening the Strait of Hormuz following a US-brokered ceasefire between Iran and Israel. The UK aims to help ensure the strait remains open for crucial energy transport, stabilizing global energy prices. Starmer emphasized the need for a permanent solution and collaboration with regional partners to address practical challenges like Iranian mines and tanker insurance. The visit follows reports of renewed blockades in the strait, highlighting the fragility of the ceasefire. Starmer's trip is seen as a way to build a reliable partnership with Gulf states, particularly in contrast to potential shifts in US foreign policy.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer stated that it is in the best interest of the United States to remain in NATO. Speaking in Qatar at the end of a Gulf trip that included stops in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain, Starmer addressed Donald Trump's threats to withdraw the US from the alliance. Starmer agreed with Trump's call for increased European defense spending within NATO, emphasizing the alliance's effectiveness and the need for a stronger European contribution. Starmer also discussed with Gulf leaders the importance of ensuring safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz following recent tensions with Iran, and the need to avoid potential levies on ships passing through. Starmer and Trump spoke on Thursday night about ensuring ships could safely pass through the strait of Hormuz.

Following a US-Israel war on Iran, Gulf states are reassessing their security strategies due to an emboldened Iran and battered economies. Gulf nations aim to diversify security partnerships, potentially including countries like Turkey and Pakistan, moving away from sole reliance on the US. A key point of contention remains Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz, a vital trade route, which will be a focus in upcoming US-Iran talks. Despite successfully intercepting many Iranian missiles during the conflict, Gulf states are divided on future relations with Iran, ranging from hawkish stances to hopes for renewed ties. Saudi Arabia and Iran have initiated contact to de-escalate tensions, highlighting the need to insulate the region from perpetual conflict and rebuild economic foundations.

Iranians are expressing fear and skepticism ahead of potential US-Iran negotiations hosted by Pakistan. The talks, if they proceed, aim to transform a temporary ceasefire into a lasting peace following a recent US-Israeli campaign against Iran. Residents of Tehran are reporting feelings ranging from anger and anxiety to disillusionment regarding the prospect of lasting peace. Many believe Iran's government, particularly the Revolutionary Guards, has been emboldened by the recent conflict, making a deal less likely. Some Iranians feel their government does not understand peace and that the temporary agreement will not last.

Shortly after the US and Iran announced a two-week ceasefire, the UAE, Kuwait, and Bahrain reported missile and drone attacks. The UAE stated its air defenses were actively intercepting incoming missiles and drones originating from Iran. Kuwait reported its army intercepted Iranian drones targeting vital oil facilities, power stations, and water desalination plants, resulting in infrastructure damage. Bahrain's Ministry of Interior reported injuries and property damage from shrapnel due to intercepted Iranian drones. The attacks occurred hours after the ceasefire announcement, raising questions about the stability of the agreement.

Following a ceasefire announcement mediated by Pakistan, a sense of relief mixed with skepticism has settled over Tehran on April 8, 2026, after weeks of bombardment by the US and Israel. While some normalcy returns to the city, with increased traffic and resumed flights in Israel, concerns remain about the ceasefire's durability. Negotiations for a lasting agreement are scheduled to begin in Islamabad on Friday. However, attacks on Iranian oil facilities and retaliatory strikes by Iran against Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain have occurred after the ceasefire was announced. Despite the ongoing tensions, all parties involved are claiming victory, but Iran has stated it is ready to resume military operations if attacked again.

On Sunday, the UAE, Bahrain, and Kuwait experienced damage to critical infrastructure following attacks from Iran. The attacks, which targeted civilian facilities, are reportedly a response to US and Israeli strikes that began in late February. Iran accuses these Gulf nations of allowing the US to launch attacks from their territory, a claim the Gulf states deny. In Abu Dhabi, fires broke out at a petrochemical plant in Ruwais Industrial City, prompting a suspension of operations and damage assessment. The UAE defense ministry reported responding to missile and drone attacks, with authorities citing debris from interceptions as the cause of the fires. No injuries have been reported.

On April 5, 2026, Kuwait reported that Iranian drone attacks damaged two power and water desalination plants, causing outages and material damage. Fires also broke out at oil facilities and a government office complex, resulting in significant material losses for the Kuwait Petroleum Corp. Bahrain and the UAE also experienced Iranian attacks that resulted in fires. These attacks are reportedly in response to US and Israeli strikes on Iran since February 28. The attacks on Kuwait's infrastructure are considered devastating due to the country's reliance on desalination for drinking water. There are concerns that further escalation between the US, Israel, and Iran could lead to more attacks on Gulf state facilities.