Ukraine claws back southern territory as Russia’s war enters fifth year

As the war in Ukraine entered its fifth year, Ukrainian forces claimed territorial gains in the south. President Zelenskyy initially reported regaining 300 square kilometers since an unspecified time, while his commander later cited 400 square kilometers gained since late January. These gains, along with improved air defenses protecting Kyiv, occurred despite Russian drone and missile attacks. The Institute for the Study of War attributed Ukraine's success to disruptions in Russian military communications caused by the disconnection of illegal Starlink terminals and the partial disabling of Telegram. Despite these Ukrainian gains, Russia has captured 1.5% of Ukraine over the past three years at a high cost. The battle for Pokrovsk, a logistics hub in the Donetsk region, ended in a Russian victory after two years.

In Lviv, western Ukraine, a 23-year-old female police officer was killed and 25 people were injured in what Ukrainian officials are calling a terror attack. Two homemade explosive devices, planted in waste bins, detonated after police responded to a reported break-in early Sunday. A 33-year-old Ukrainian woman was detained as a suspect, with police stating she acted on the instructions of a Russian special services agent. The explosions occurred in the city center, with the first blast happening upon the arrival of a police car and a second when another crew arrived. The incident is being investigated as an act of terrorism. Separately, Ukraine faced overnight Russian strikes targeting the energy sector, residential buildings, and railways, resulting in at least one death in the Kyiv region.

On Sunday, just before the fourth anniversary of Russia's invasion, Russia launched a large-scale missile and drone attack targeting Ukrainian infrastructure. The attacks, which began around 4:00 am, impacted energy and rail infrastructure, as well as residential buildings across Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Russia launched approximately 50 missiles and 300 drones. One man was killed and a dozen people were wounded, including four children, in and around Kyiv. Rescuers were seen searching through the debris of damaged buildings in the Kyiv region. Zelensky condemned the attacks, stating that Russia is prioritizing strikes over diplomacy.

On the anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer declared the conflict "the most critical issue of our age." Starmer announced continued and increased UK support for Ukraine, emphasizing Britain's unwavering commitment. He stated that the war tests the endurance of Ukrainian and European freedom, asserting that Russia is not and will not be victorious. Starmer affirmed the UK's dedication to standing with Ukraine until a just and lasting peace is achieved, highlighting Ukraine's courage in defending shared values against Russian aggression. The statement was part of a press release announcing further UK assistance to Ukraine.

In February 2026, as the Ukraine war enters its fifth year, Moscow believes the 2022 invasion was a necessary gamble, not a failure. Russian political elites view the war as ending on their terms, driven by pragmatic motives, primarily to prevent NATO expansion towards Russia's borders. The conflict allowed security elites to eliminate pro-Western opposition and consolidate power. The decision to invade also stemmed from Ukraine's initial attempts at rapprochement with Russia under President Zelenskyy, which were later abandoned due to internal pressures. Many Russians see the war as a proxy conflict with NATO, benefiting security elites and hawkish Western lobbyists.

The UK Parliament is set to debate the release of documents concerning Prince Andrew's appointment as a UK trade envoy. A government minister has indicated that the government will likely not prevent MPs from voting to publish these documents. Separately, Keir Starmer acknowledged the resilience of the Ukrainian people, noting the initial expectation of a swift Russian victory four years ago. He recounted his visit to a Kyiv hospital and a primary school, highlighting the severe injuries and loss experienced by Ukrainians due to the conflict. Starmer urged people to combat the false narrative of Russia winning the war.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán accused Ukraine of pursuing an "anti-Hungarian policy" and endangering Hungary's energy supply by blocking the Druzhba oil pipeline, which carries Russian oil through Ukraine to Hungary. Orbán published an open letter to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy demanding a change in policy and ordered increased security at Hungary's critical energy infrastructure sites, citing alleged Ukrainian actions to disrupt the country's energy system. Ukrainian officials deny blocking the pipeline, attributing disruptions to Russian drone attacks. Hungary has threatened to block a proposed €90 billion EU loan to Ukraine unless Russian oil shipments resume. The accusations come as Orbán faces an upcoming election and as billboards depicting Zelenskyy asking for money have appeared across Hungary.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban ordered increased security at critical energy infrastructure sites, alleging Ukraine is planning to disrupt Hungary's energy system. Orban stated intelligence services indicated Kyiv is preparing actions to disrupt operations, citing an existing "oil blockade" as pressure. He announced the deployment of soldiers and increased police patrols around key facilities. This follows accusations from Budapest that Kyiv is deliberately holding back Russian oil deliveries through the Druzhba pipeline, which Ukraine denies, attributing disruptions to a Russian drone attack. Hungary, along with Slovakia, maintains significant Russian energy imports despite the war in Ukraine and has threatened to block EU aid to Kyiv until oil shipments resume. The Druzhba pipeline has been out of commission since January 27.

The article reports on several European developments. Firstly, Poland estimates that defending NATO's eastern flank from Russia would cost €1.2 trillion, 24 times its current defense budget. Secondly, Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has requested the EU establish a fact-finding mission to inspect the Druzhba pipeline, citing escalating tensions with Ukraine and disruptions to oil transit affecting Hungary and Slovakia. Orbán assured the EU that Hungary would accept the mission's findings. Finally, Nordic countries are on high alert due to a potential threat against their energy infrastructure, allegedly linked to a foreign power. Authorities and police units are closely monitoring critical infrastructure in response to the reported threat.

Russian and Ukrainian officials began a third round of US-brokered peace talks in Geneva on Tuesday, ahead of the war's fourth anniversary. The negotiations, led by Rustem Umerov for Ukraine, will address security and humanitarian issues. Despite the talks, Russia launched heavy air strikes across Ukraine, damaging infrastructure and leaving many without essential services. Ukraine's President Zelenskyy urged allies to increase pressure on Russia for a "real and just" peace deal. The US President Trump has pushed for a deal, stating Ukraine needs to come to the table quickly. Russia is demanding Ukraine cede the remaining 20 percent of the eastern region of Donetsk, which Ukraine refuses to do.

Envoys from Ukraine and Russia convened in Geneva for a second day of US-brokered talks aimed at addressing political and military differences arising from the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The negotiations, held on Wednesday, follow previous discussions in Abu Dhabi earlier in the year. Rustem Umerov, head of the Ukrainian delegation, stated that working groups are clarifying parameters and mechanisms of previously discussed decisions. These talks represent the third round of direct negotiations organized by the U.S. Washington's envoy, Steve Witkoff, noted that the U.S. efforts have led to "meaningful progress" in the past year. The goal is to find a path toward resolving the ongoing conflict.

Senior Ukrainian and Russian officials will meet in Switzerland this week for a second round of talks, brokered by the Trump administration, ahead of the fourth anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The two-day meeting, starting Tuesday, will include representatives from Washington, Kyiv, and Moscow, similar to negotiations held earlier this month in Abu Dhabi. The purpose of the meeting is to foster diplomacy between the warring countries. However, expectations for a significant breakthrough are low due to Russia's continued hardline demands on Ukraine. Despite renewed US efforts, the situation remains tense.

EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas stated at the Munich Security Conference that EU governments are not prepared to give Ukraine a specific date for membership. This statement comes despite President Zelensky's demand for a date as part of security guarantees for a peace package with Russia. While a 2027 membership date was reportedly discussed in a peace plan between the US, Ukraine, and the EU, many EU governments consider any fixed date unrealistic. They maintain that EU accession is a merit-based process dependent on Ukraine aligning its laws with EU standards. Kallas emphasized that "there's a lot of work to be done" before membership can be considered.

Valerii Zaluzhnyi, the former army chief of Ukraine and now ambassador to the United Kingdom, has revealed a rift between himself and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. In an interview with the Associated Press in London on February 2, 2026, Zaluzhnyi, who is seen as a potential political rival to Zelenskyy, discussed the previously unseen tensions. The article suggests the disagreement may stem from differing views on the direction of the war and potentially, political ambitions. The revelation comes after Zaluzhnyi was removed from his position as army chief in February 2024. The details of the rift and its potential impact on Ukraine's political landscape remain to be seen.

After President Trump's return to the White House in January 2025, his promise to quickly end the war in Ukraine has not materialized. In 2025, the conflict worsened for Ukrainians, with increased civilian casualties and Russian territorial gains. Trump shifted U.S. policy by reducing aid to Ukraine by 99% and halting weapon shipments unless paid for, while simultaneously making overtures to Russia. Meanwhile, Russia increased weapons production and attacks, severely damaging Ukraine's power grid. Negotiations involving Russia, Ukraine, and the U.S. are scheduled, as Trump seeks to be credited with ending the war.

On Saturday, Ukrainian drones struck an industrial site in Russia's Udmurt Republic, wounding 11 people. While regional head Alexander Brechalov confirmed the attack and resulting damage, he did not identify the specific site. However, a Russian news channel, Astra, reported the target was the Votkinsk Machine Building Plant, a key state-owned missile factory that produces Iskander and intercontinental ballistic missiles. The attack, which occurred over 1,400 kilometers from Ukraine, prompted the suspension of operations at the Udmurt Republic's main airport and others nearby. This strike follows unsuccessful U.S.-brokered peace talks between Russia and Ukraine held in Switzerland earlier in the week, as the fourth anniversary of the war approaches.

Russian and Ukrainian delegations are set to meet in Geneva for the latest round of US-brokered talks on Ukraine, a week before the fourth anniversary of Moscow's full-scale invasion. The talks will be mediated by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, with Ukrainian representatives including National Security Council secretary Rustem Umerov and President Volodymyr Zelensky's chief of staff Kyrylo Budanov. Expectations for a breakthrough remain low, as Russia has not wavered from its maximalist demands for Ukrainian territory. Meanwhile, strikes continue on a nightly basis, with Moscow carrying out a large combined aerial attack on Ukraine earlier in the day, hitting 12 regions and killing at least three people. The US President has urged Ukraine to make concessions, while Ukraine's deputy energy minister announced that at least three energy workers were killed in Monday's overnight attacks.

Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has threatened to cut off electricity supplies to Ukraine if it does not resume pumping Russian oil through the Druzhba pipeline within two days. Oil flows were halted after a reported Russian drone strike in late January 2026. Slovakia and Hungary, both reliant on Russian oil, are demanding Ukraine resume deliveries. Fico accused Ukrainian President Zelenskyy of acting maliciously towards Slovakia, citing previous gas supply disruptions and Slovakia's refusal to participate in a 90 billion euro military loan for Ukraine. Slovakia is a key electricity provider for Ukraine, which has suffered damage to its grid from Russian attacks. The ultimatum highlights tensions between Slovakia and Ukraine amidst ongoing debates over EU financial aid to Ukraine.

Russian and Ukrainian envoys will meet in Geneva next week, February 17-18, for US-brokered talks aimed at finding a resolution to the ongoing war. This round of negotiations follows two previous meetings in Abu Dhabi and comes as the conflict approaches its fourth year. The primary sticking point remains the future of the Donbas region, with Russia demanding Ukraine withdraw from the portion of Donetsk it still controls. Ukraine seeks Western security guarantees to prevent future Russian offensives. The US has reportedly given both sides a June deadline to reach an agreement. The conflict, which began in 2022, has resulted in hundreds of thousands of military and civilian casualties.

As Ukraine prepares for upcoming peace talks, Ukrainian officials report increased pressure from the Trump administration to make concessions to Russia, aiming to end the war by early summer. President Zelensky expressed frustration that the U.S. is pressing Ukraine harder than Russia, but acknowledges the need to maintain American engagement, especially with the approaching midterm elections potentially shifting U.S. focus. Zelensky stated that the U.S. desires to halt the war by June, and that the Trump administration was "likely to put pressure on the parties according to that timeline.” Ukraine is sending a delegation to Florida for talks next week, though Russian participation is uncertain. The U.S. strategy remains unclear if Ukraine doesn't concede on issues like territory and elections.

On Thursday, February 12, 2026, Russia launched a barrage of missiles and drones at Ukrainian cities. This occurred as the possibility of another round of US-brokered peace talks between Russia and Ukraine remained uncertain. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy stated that Ukraine had agreed to attend proposed negotiations in either Miami or Abu Dhabi, but Russia was hesitant. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov indicated that talks were expected "soon" without providing specifics. The US government has not commented on the potential for further negotiations, which are part of an ongoing peace effort. Zelenskyy previously stated that the US has set a June deadline for a deal between the two countries.