Since Islamabad MoU: What’s changed for the US, Iran and the Gulf?

Since the unraveling of the Islamabad MoU, the US and Iran have resumed direct military conflict, leading to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and a surge in oil prices. The US has reported 17 service member deaths, with three occurring recently. Iran, having previously benefited from sanctions waivers and the reopening of its ports under the MoU, now faces renewed US naval blockades and bombing of coastal areas, severely impacting its oil exports and currency. For Gulf Cooperation Council states, the conflict disrupts economic security and diversification strategies due to increased costs and reduced investor confidence. In the US, the war is unpopular, contributing to President Trump's low approval ratings and economic pessimism among the public.

A Trump administration official stated that the US mission in Iran has shifted from ending the conflict to ensuring oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz. Energy Secretary Chris Wright defended the strategy on ABC's "This Week," explaining that diplomatic efforts to allow oil shipments failed, leading to a pivot to guaranteeing passage with or without Iranian cooperation. This comes amidst mounting criticism over the war's length and the deaths of 16 American troops. Senator Mark Warner, a Democrat, criticized the conflict as a "war of choice" launched without an imminent threat, arguing the administration has not achieved its objectives of regime change or preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. The US launched retaliatory strikes against Iran's Revolutionary Guards after the latest troop deaths.