How Trump’s plan to take Iran’s Kharg Island could come unhinged

Yemen's Houthis have entered the regional conflict between Iran and its enemies, the US and Israel, with a confirmed attack on Israel in March 2026. While the Houthis align with Iran's broader strategy as part of the "Axis of Resistance," they maintain a degree of independence in their decision-making. Iran provides support, expertise, and political cover, but the Houthis prioritize their domestic objectives in Yemen, where they control Sanaa and much of the northwest. This allows them to leverage regional escalations to serve their own project within Yemen, without directly mirroring the actions of other Iran-backed groups like Hezbollah. The Houthis' relationship with Iran is an unequal partnership that allows them to act in their own interests.

Donald Trump has expressed interest in seizing Iranian oil, specifically targeting Kharg Island, a key export hub. This statement, made amidst ongoing conflict between the US and Iran, has drawn criticism and raised questions about the true motives behind the war. Experts suggest Trump's desire reflects a belief in "fossil-fuel imperialism," where the US is entitled to resources it desires. Trump has threatened to obliterate Iran's energy infrastructure, including Kharg Island, if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened and a peace deal reached quickly. Iran has attacked a crude oil tanker anchored at Dubai port. Trump is expected to provide an update on the Iran war on Wednesday.

Analysts suggest that Donald Trump's plan to seize Iran's Kharg Island, a crucial oil hub handling 90% of Iran's crude shipments, carries significant risks due to its strategic location in the Persian Gulf. Kharg Island is located 33km off the Iranian mainland, placing it within range of Iranian missiles and drones, and 660km from the Strait of Hormuz. The Trump administration is considering this action to pressure Iran into reopening the Strait, which has been effectively shut in response to US-Israeli strikes that began on February 28. Trump's recent speech hinted at further strikes and the nearing completion of "Operation Epic Fury," raising concerns about a potential US seizure of Kharg Island amidst increasing American troop presence in the region. Trump has repeatedly threatened to seize the island since the start of the US-Israeli military campaign.

In March 2026, US President Donald Trump threatened to seize or destroy Iran's Kharg Island, its main oil export hub, if Tehran does not agree to a deal with the US. Nearly all of Iran's oil exports depend on Kharg Island. The potential takeover, possibly involving ground troops, is part of escalating tensions between the US and Iran. Analysts suggest the US may be trying to gain leverage in negotiations with Iran by threatening its oil exports. The strategic importance of Kharg Island raises concerns about the potential impact on the conflict and global energy markets.

Iran has accused the United States of secretly planning a ground assault while publicly seeking negotiations, amidst ongoing tensions. This accusation comes as the conflict, which has already caused significant global energy disruption, enters its second month. President Trump stated in an interview that he would prefer to seize Iranian oil and suggested that taking Kharg Island, a crucial Iranian export hub, would be easy. The situation is developing, and the potential seizure of Iranian crude oil is significant for Cuba, which is currently experiencing severe fuel shortages due to a lack of imports. Cuba's president has stated that the country has not received any oil imports for three months.

Chinese analysts believe the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, now in its second month, is unlikely to be prolonged despite escalating tensions. The conflict has expanded geographically, with Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen firing missiles at Israel, one of which was intercepted. The Houthis operate near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a critical shipping lane for Eurasian trade. Analysts warn that Houthi obstruction of this strait could significantly impact the global economy and potentially cause another increase in oil prices, which have already risen. The Houthi missile attack was reportedly issued as a warning.

The Pentagon is reportedly preparing plans for weeks of limited ground operations in Iran, potentially including raids on Kharg Island and coastal sites near the Strait of Hormuz. According to The Washington Post, the plans involve special operations and conventional infantry troops, but fall short of a full-scale invasion. These preparations come as the war in Iran stretches into its fifth week, with the US deploying additional Marines and soldiers to the Middle East, including approximately 3,500 soldiers who recently arrived on the USS Tripoli. Discussions within the administration have considered seizing Kharg Island, a key Iranian oil export hub, and raiding coastal areas to destroy weapons targeting commercial and military shipping. While the Pentagon is preparing options, it remains uncertain whether President Trump will approve any of these plans.

European officials report that Iran is pressuring the Houthi rebels in Yemen to prepare for renewed attacks on Red Sea shipping. This action is reportedly contingent on further escalation by the US against Iran. Houthi leaders are considering more aggressive actions after launching ballistic missiles at Israel. Internal divisions exist within the Houthi leadership regarding the extent of aggression. While the Houthis announced they would continue military operations until US-Israeli attacks on Iran and its proxies cease, they did not explicitly state they would target Red Sea vessels. US and Saudi Arabian officials believe the Houthis currently aim to avoid further escalation and attacks on American and Saudi assets.

Donald Trump threatened to "obliterate" Iran's energy grid and water plants if a ceasefire is not reached "shortly" in the ongoing conflict instigated by the US and Israel. This threat, made via social media, includes targeting Kharg Island, a major oil export facility. Trump claims to be in "serious discussions" with a "more reasonable regime" in Tehran to reach a deal, including reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has described US peace proposals as "excessive" and acknowledged receiving a 15-point proposal from the Trump administration after talks with other nations. The White House indicated Trump would seek financial assistance from Arab countries to cover the war costs, while also expressing a preference to "take the oil in Iran," potentially requiring a US troop seizure of Kharg Island.

As Donald Trump plans a trip to China in May, a surge in US troops in the Middle East suggests a potential for a drawn-out, low-intensity conflict with Iran. Recent reports indicate the US has deployed several hundred Army Rangers and Navy Seals to the region, bringing the total number of American troops to over 50,000. This deployment provides Trump with military options, such as securing the Strait of Hormuz, seizing Kharg Island, or extracting enriched uranium from Iran. Analysts believe a full-scale US ground invasion of Iran is unlikely, suggesting the US is trying to avoid a costly, protracted war. The troop increase and potential actions are viewed in the context of Trump's upcoming visit to China.

The article discusses concerns in China that President Trump's war with Iran is creating divisions within the Republican Party and among his supporters, potentially harming the party's midterm election prospects. Conflicting messages from Trump and his administration regarding the war's progress and potential peace deals are causing uncertainty. Despite Trump's claims of progress, the White House has also threatened further action against Iran. The risk of escalation remains high, with the US military increasing its troop presence in the Middle East and reportedly planning further operations. These developments raise questions about the war's trajectory and the administration's strategy.