Ukraine claws back southern territory as Russia’s war enters fifth year

As the war in Ukraine entered its fifth year, Ukrainian forces claimed territorial gains in the south. President Zelenskyy initially reported regaining 300 square kilometers since an unspecified time, while his commander later cited 400 square kilometers gained since late January. These gains, along with improved air defenses protecting Kyiv, occurred despite Russian drone and missile attacks. The Institute for the Study of War attributed Ukraine's success to disruptions in Russian military communications caused by the disconnection of illegal Starlink terminals and the partial disabling of Telegram. Despite these Ukrainian gains, Russia has captured 1.5% of Ukraine over the past three years at a high cost. The battle for Pokrovsk, a logistics hub in the Donetsk region, ended in a Russian victory after two years.

After four years, the war between Russia and Ukraine continues despite efforts to reach a settlement, including a push from the United States. The conflict, which began with Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, has now lasted longer than Russia's involvement in World War II. The fighting persists, with Ukrainian servicemen actively engaging Russian positions in regions like Kharkiv. Diplomatic efforts have included meetings between U.S. President Donald Trump and both Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Russian President Vladimir Putin, but a resolution remains elusive. The ongoing war highlights the deep-seated challenges in achieving peace between the two nations.

In Lviv, western Ukraine, a 23-year-old female police officer was killed and 25 people were injured in what Ukrainian officials are calling a terror attack. Two homemade explosive devices, planted in waste bins, detonated after police responded to a reported break-in early Sunday. A 33-year-old Ukrainian woman was detained as a suspect, with police stating she acted on the instructions of a Russian special services agent. The explosions occurred in the city center, with the first blast happening upon the arrival of a police car and a second when another crew arrived. The incident is being investigated as an act of terrorism. Separately, Ukraine faced overnight Russian strikes targeting the energy sector, residential buildings, and railways, resulting in at least one death in the Kyiv region.

In February 2026, as the Ukraine war enters its fifth year, Moscow believes the 2022 invasion was a necessary gamble, not a failure. Russian political elites view the war as ending on their terms, driven by pragmatic motives, primarily to prevent NATO expansion towards Russia's borders. The conflict allowed security elites to eliminate pro-Western opposition and consolidate power. The decision to invade also stemmed from Ukraine's initial attempts at rapprochement with Russia under President Zelenskyy, which were later abandoned due to internal pressures. Many Russians see the war as a proxy conflict with NATO, benefiting security elites and hawkish Western lobbyists.

The UK Parliament is set to debate the release of documents concerning Prince Andrew's appointment as a UK trade envoy. A government minister has indicated that the government will likely not prevent MPs from voting to publish these documents. Separately, Keir Starmer acknowledged the resilience of the Ukrainian people, noting the initial expectation of a swift Russian victory four years ago. He recounted his visit to a Kyiv hospital and a primary school, highlighting the severe injuries and loss experienced by Ukrainians due to the conflict. Starmer urged people to combat the false narrative of Russia winning the war.

On the eve of the fourth anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, EU support is faltering as Hungary threatens to block both a new package of sanctions against Russia and a €90 billion ($106 billion) financial aid package for Ukraine. Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who maintains close ties with Russia, has a history of delaying EU sanctions. Ukraine needs the aid package to fund its defense and essential needs, expecting the first installments this spring to avoid a budget crisis. Hungary cites disruptions to the Druzhba pipeline, which supplies Russian oil, as the reason for its opposition, despite Ukraine stating the damage was caused by a Russian attack and repairs are underway. The EU is attempting to resolve the situation, but Hungary's stance highlights the challenges of the bloc's consensus-based decision-making.

A "terrorist attack" in Lviv, Ukraine, resulted in the death of a 23-year-old policewoman and injuries to 25 others early Sunday morning. Ukrainian authorities responded to a reported break-in when two explosions occurred, triggered by improvised explosive devices hidden in garbage bins. President Zelenskyy confirmed the detention of a 33-year-old woman from the Rivne region in connection with the attack, which occurred in the city center on Danylyshyn Street. Investigators allege the suspect acted under the direction of a "curator" linked to Russian special services and manufactured and planted the explosives. Interior Minister Klymenko stated there is reason to believe Russia ordered the attack, accusing them of targeting Ukrainian law enforcement.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban ordered increased security at critical energy infrastructure sites, alleging Ukraine is planning to disrupt Hungary's energy system. Orban stated intelligence services indicated Kyiv is preparing actions to disrupt operations, citing an existing "oil blockade" as pressure. He announced the deployment of soldiers and increased police patrols around key facilities. This follows accusations from Budapest that Kyiv is deliberately holding back Russian oil deliveries through the Druzhba pipeline, which Ukraine denies, attributing disruptions to a Russian drone attack. Hungary, along with Slovakia, maintains significant Russian energy imports despite the war in Ukraine and has threatened to block EU aid to Kyiv until oil shipments resume. The Druzhba pipeline has been out of commission since January 27.

In Lviv, Ukraine, a police officer was killed and 24 people were wounded by multiple homemade explosive devices that detonated around midnight on Sunday. The National Police reported that the explosions occurred after a patrol crew responded to a suspected shop break-in. A 23-year-old policewoman died, and twelve people remain hospitalized, with two in serious condition. A woman has been detained in connection with the incident, which Lviv's mayor described as a terrorist act. President Volodymyr Zelensky accused Russia of orchestrating the attack, claiming the perpetrators were recruited online.

Russian and Ukrainian officials began a third round of US-brokered peace talks in Geneva on Tuesday, ahead of the war's fourth anniversary. The negotiations, led by Rustem Umerov for Ukraine, will address security and humanitarian issues. Despite the talks, Russia launched heavy air strikes across Ukraine, damaging infrastructure and leaving many without essential services. Ukraine's President Zelenskyy urged allies to increase pressure on Russia for a "real and just" peace deal. The US President Trump has pushed for a deal, stating Ukraine needs to come to the table quickly. Russia is demanding Ukraine cede the remaining 20 percent of the eastern region of Donetsk, which Ukraine refuses to do.

Envoys from Ukraine and Russia convened in Geneva for a second day of US-brokered talks aimed at addressing political and military differences arising from the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The negotiations, held on Wednesday, follow previous discussions in Abu Dhabi earlier in the year. Rustem Umerov, head of the Ukrainian delegation, stated that working groups are clarifying parameters and mechanisms of previously discussed decisions. These talks represent the third round of direct negotiations organized by the U.S. Washington's envoy, Steve Witkoff, noted that the U.S. efforts have led to "meaningful progress" in the past year. The goal is to find a path toward resolving the ongoing conflict.

Senior Ukrainian and Russian officials will meet in Switzerland this week for a second round of talks, brokered by the Trump administration, ahead of the fourth anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The two-day meeting, starting Tuesday, will include representatives from Washington, Kyiv, and Moscow, similar to negotiations held earlier this month in Abu Dhabi. The purpose of the meeting is to foster diplomacy between the warring countries. However, expectations for a significant breakthrough are low due to Russia's continued hardline demands on Ukraine. Despite renewed US efforts, the situation remains tense.

Valerii Zaluzhnyi, the former army chief of Ukraine and now ambassador to the United Kingdom, has revealed a rift between himself and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. In an interview with the Associated Press in London on February 2, 2026, Zaluzhnyi, who is seen as a potential political rival to Zelenskyy, discussed the previously unseen tensions. The article suggests the disagreement may stem from differing views on the direction of the war and potentially, political ambitions. The revelation comes after Zaluzhnyi was removed from his position as army chief in February 2024. The details of the rift and its potential impact on Ukraine's political landscape remain to be seen.

After President Trump's return to the White House in January 2025, his promise to quickly end the war in Ukraine has not materialized. In 2025, the conflict worsened for Ukrainians, with increased civilian casualties and Russian territorial gains. Trump shifted U.S. policy by reducing aid to Ukraine by 99% and halting weapon shipments unless paid for, while simultaneously making overtures to Russia. Meanwhile, Russia increased weapons production and attacks, severely damaging Ukraine's power grid. Negotiations involving Russia, Ukraine, and the U.S. are scheduled, as Trump seeks to be credited with ending the war.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy dismissed Vladimir Putin's historical arguments as a "delay tactic" in peace negotiations, urging a focus on ending the war. Zelenskyy stated that debating history would only prolong the process and that the only relevant discussion is how to achieve a swift resolution. His comments followed talks in Switzerland between Ukrainian, U.S., and Russian officials, which Zelenskyy suggested yielded limited progress, particularly on sensitive political matters. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte questioned Russia's seriousness about negotiations, noting the presence of Vladimir Medinsky, known for emphasizing historical narratives. Medinsky described the talks as "difficult but businesslike."

Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has threatened to cut off electricity supplies to Ukraine if it does not resume pumping Russian oil through the Druzhba pipeline within two days. Oil flows were halted after a reported Russian drone strike in late January 2026. Slovakia and Hungary, both reliant on Russian oil, are demanding Ukraine resume deliveries. Fico accused Ukrainian President Zelenskyy of acting maliciously towards Slovakia, citing previous gas supply disruptions and Slovakia's refusal to participate in a 90 billion euro military loan for Ukraine. Slovakia is a key electricity provider for Ukraine, which has suffered damage to its grid from Russian attacks. The ultimatum highlights tensions between Slovakia and Ukraine amidst ongoing debates over EU financial aid to Ukraine.

On Saturday, Ukrainian drones struck an industrial site in Russia's Udmurt Republic, wounding 11 people. While regional head Alexander Brechalov confirmed the attack and resulting damage, he did not identify the specific site. However, a Russian news channel, Astra, reported the target was the Votkinsk Machine Building Plant, a key state-owned missile factory that produces Iskander and intercontinental ballistic missiles. The attack, which occurred over 1,400 kilometers from Ukraine, prompted the suspension of operations at the Udmurt Republic's main airport and others nearby. This strike follows unsuccessful U.S.-brokered peace talks between Russia and Ukraine held in Switzerland earlier in the week, as the fourth anniversary of the war approaches.

Russian and Ukrainian delegations are set to meet in Geneva for the latest round of US-brokered talks on Ukraine, a week before the fourth anniversary of Moscow's full-scale invasion. The talks will be mediated by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, with Ukrainian representatives including National Security Council secretary Rustem Umerov and President Volodymyr Zelensky's chief of staff Kyrylo Budanov. Expectations for a breakthrough remain low, as Russia has not wavered from its maximalist demands for Ukrainian territory. Meanwhile, strikes continue on a nightly basis, with Moscow carrying out a large combined aerial attack on Ukraine earlier in the day, hitting 12 regions and killing at least three people. The US President has urged Ukraine to make concessions, while Ukraine's deputy energy minister announced that at least three energy workers were killed in Monday's overnight attacks.

Western officials claim that Russian battlefield losses in Ukraine exceeded recruitment by approximately 9,000 in January. This suggests Ukraine's strategy to inflict heavier damage on Russian forces is gaining traction. Despite these losses, Russian forces failed to achieve significant territorial gains during the same period. Ukrainian officials aim to increase Russian losses to 50,000 per month by summer, hoping to strain Russia's ability to replace troops without further mobilization. While December saw Russian losses roughly equal to recruitment, the January deficit indicates a potential shift in the conflict's dynamics, although the sustainability of this trend remains uncertain. The assessment of Western officials could not be independently verified.

In February 2026, Russia intensified its air assaults on Ukraine, coinciding with visits from Western officials. These attacks, involving drones and missiles, targeted energy infrastructure across the country, causing widespread power outages and forcing a nuclear power plant to shut down. Ukrainian air defenses managed to intercept a significant portion of the incoming weapons. The strikes have resulted in civilian casualties, including the deaths of children in Bohodukhiv and elsewhere. Russia's actions are seen as an attempt to weaken Ukraine's defenses and punish its growing ties with the West. Emergency crews are working to restore power and heat amidst freezing temperatures.

Russian drone and missile attacks across Ukraine have caused widespread power outages and left hundreds of thousands without essential services. In Odesa, nearly 300,000 people are without water and 200 buildings lack heating. Kyiv also experienced significant disruptions, with 3,500 buildings without heating due to power outages affecting thousands of high-rise buildings. The attacks, which occurred overnight, also injured four people in Dnipro, including two children. A thermal power plant belonging to DTEK suffered extensive damage in the eleventh large-scale attack on the company since October 2025. Ukraine's foreign minister condemned the attacks, stating they undermine diplomatic efforts to end the war and called for increased pressure on Moscow.

Russian and Ukrainian envoys will meet in Geneva next week, February 17-18, for US-brokered talks aimed at finding a resolution to the ongoing war. This round of negotiations follows two previous meetings in Abu Dhabi and comes as the conflict approaches its fourth year. The primary sticking point remains the future of the Donbas region, with Russia demanding Ukraine withdraw from the portion of Donetsk it still controls. Ukraine seeks Western security guarantees to prevent future Russian offensives. The US has reportedly given both sides a June deadline to reach an agreement. The conflict, which began in 2022, has resulted in hundreds of thousands of military and civilian casualties.